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Comment by kickopotomus | Hacker News Reader

I think 50 years is being overly pessimistic. Self-driving in temperate climates is probably pretty close (<10 years). Waymo has pilot programs currently underway in California and Arizona[1][2].

[1]: https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/16/waymos-robotaxi-pilot-surp...

[2]: https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/10/20907901/waymo-driverles...

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The thing is, I see no way to have full self driving without AGI. And I don't think humanity is anywhere close to developing AGI. Without AGI you can have level 4++ self driving, maybe, but not level 5.

> The thing is, I see no way to have full self driving without AGI.

Why? AGI seems like a significantly harder problem than self driving cars (itself a hard problem admittedly).

What I personally think will happen is we'll meet somewhere in the middle: we can redesign roads/cars to make solving the problem of self driving easier.

Because of all the edge cases that humans can handle a good amount of the time because we have a lot of intelligence compared to any computer.

But I agree with you that if we meet in the middle, that could actually work well.

How much difference does 4++ vs 5 make for the predicted consequences of self-driving cars though? That's the important thing.

I would say that I would feel comfortable falling asleep in a 5 while it is driving nontrivial distance and/or road conditions, but I would not feel comfortable doing so in a 4++.

Why? Plain old 4 is supposed to be the "safe to sleep" level.

How often do you have drives when you need to fall asleep though?

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