My bet was on Jim Whitehurst.
Arvind Krishna was "Jim Whitehurst's boss" until now (Red Hat is under the IBM cloud division), and back when the acquisition was announced in 2018 he visited one of the Red Hat offices for a sort of "town hall" meeting. He almost unanimously made a very good impression, and he won over quite a few employees that at the time were skeptical about the acquisition.
Not true. Jim (and Red Hat under him) reported directly to Ginni. Red Hat was under IBM cloud for revenue reporting, though, but the distinction is material.