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alpineidyll3

Working hard without thinking hard doesn't work. Working hard without taking risks doesn't work.

Working hard while thinking hard and taking risks has made me wealthy. YMMV

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> Working hard while thinking hard and taking risks has made me wealthy

I'm sure there are plenty of people who did the same and failed.

There are always many factors to consider but I would say the key one is luck. With a bit of luck you can easily miss one of the others (working hard for example) and still become successful.

This is where statistics are important to consider. If you do a task with a 20 percent chance of success but you do it 10 times, your chance of succeeding at least once becomes close to 100 percent. Many people balk at their first or second failure and stop trying, when the key is to keep trying over and over, learning and improving the entire way.

> If you do a task with a 20 percent chance of success but you do it 10 times, your chance of succeeding at least once becomes close to 100 percent.

No it doesn't because those aren't independent events.

>Many people balk at their first or second failure and stop trying

Or they run out of time or money.

Without a safety net, the cost of failure is often too high to not balk at the first or second failure. Those fortunate enough to fall out of the right womb have the privilege of failing many many times without significant consequences.

Totally agree, but this is something hard to grasp for many people.

What's also important is to realize the external constraints. You should always plan to allow a couple of failures before reaching the end of the rope instead of going all in in the first try.

Taking your example if I can only do the task 3 times (for whatever reason: budget, etc) then my chances for success are a lot lower compared to a competitor who can play the game longer.

EDIT: Also it's important to learn and internalize that knowledge after each try. In most cases you can't do the same thing each time and expect a different outcome.

The harder you tug on those bootstraps the more likely you are to pull yourself up.

How many people do you think can afford to fail 10 times?

For a multi-million dollar potential unicorn? Almost nobody even gets one chance. But for a small business started on the side and slowly grown? Anyone middle-class can in the US IMO. You don't need investors or massive loans to start a small business in your free time, just customers that can be earned through word-of-mouth when starting out. Capital grows exponentially, so even small profits can compound into something significant if reinvested.

You do need enough free time to start said small business, though, as well as enough capital (even if not "massive loans"). For many people those requirements are pretty tough.

And don’t forget how many people have clauses in their employment agreements saying that any IP they develop on or off the clock belongs to the company.

Nobody tells you it's easy, just it requires some sacrifices. If you really want it you'll find time.

I failed over twice that many times. Don't actually recommend it. Better to found Google in college and succeed the first time.

Guess I'll choose that then

26 startups here. All but the last personal failures. Personal in that several people became independently wealthy from my companies. Now I have found my niche in the world. I don't have to work hard but the harder I work the better I do.

Yes, our mileages may vary because what you've described could be survivorship bias from a lucky break. And since costs don't scale with wealth, any future risks you take can be absorbed by the original luck.

Exactly. HN in particular has a strong survivorship bias.

Startups in the typical SV sense are not the way to wealth, any more than professional sports. The folks with rare talent, and the folks around them that can glom onto those people, have a small chance of making a lot of money.

Everybody else, not so much.

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