It's a horrible abuse of probability, which is not unlike saying that 0*∞ = 100%.

Not to say that we can't possibly be living in a simulation, but rather that the only way that can be shown, or even evidenced, is through concrete evidence. Thought experiment is insufficient evidence.

It's obvious projection. Centuries ago we lived in a dome, in the 18th century we lived in a clock, now we live in a computer, soon enough in a quantum computer. Give it 50 years and we'll live in the new fad, and giggle at the old fools who thought we lived in a simulation. So primitive!