Wow, talk about backward logic. The epidemic in the heterosexual population didn't manifest itself BECAUSE of all the preventive education (or as he calls it, fear-mongering) of the risks of unprotected sex.
To me, this indicates that without an expensive preventive programme, a worldwide epidemic would have occurred.
I hate to make the comparison due to the difference in significance, however, there were similar sentiments about Year2000 fixing. The few remaining problems were dismissed as isolated incidences and people wondered why so much money was spent.