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Comment by perfunctory | Hacker News Reader

What exactly makes you optimistic? Genuinely curious. I don't see any concerted effort from society so far.

The thing that makes me most optimistic is the IPCC is highly confident that if we switch from fossil fuels, within 10-20 years the man made part of global warming will end.

In just 20 years my state has moved from 70% coal - 30% natgas power to 25% coal, 50% natgas, 25% wind. In maybe a decade the only CO2 my state will be producing of any significance will be from automobiles, which look to be on the verge of being replaced by electric in at most 2 decades. Granted my state in the US has likely moved the fastest on this.

It is hard to believe that given just our current level of progress, that the world won't have drastically cut CO2 by 2050.

There are some local success stories here and there for sure. But global co2 emissions are still rising. Not declining, not even flattening, rising! According to the latest UN emissions gap report we need to reduce global emissions by 7.6% every year starting now to meet Paris agreement. Last year global emissions increased, again. Reduction trend is nowhere in sight yet. I have no idea where hope and optimism come from.

If. COP25, the 25th year, was a farce of self-interest from fossil producers. Australia found a way to fiddle their historic figures to claim they need take no action! No one's listening to the IPCC, except those not running countries (except maybe some of the smaller, poorer ones).

If you would like to read some actual peer reviewed science, you can view the IPCC 2018 special report which covers the possible outcomes of a near zero CO2 production scenario.

If you're going to dispute the qualifications of the IPCC, it would help to show something peer reviewed by people in the field.

The IPCC recommendations are fine -- where do I dispute them? I don't. Did the double negative throw you? I point out no government is taking notice of them. Can you name one government that is responding to the IPCC recommendations appropriately? As seen at the UN COP25 climate summit in December, substantive action appears no closer than decades ago. If they were taking note of IPCC reports, we might have had a far more inspiring result.

The EU are nearest to meeting IPCC recommendations, and have taken some worthwhile steps forward, but so far not nearly enough, though they committed to net zero by 2050 shortly after the failed COP25. Most of the rest of the world is doing nothing, or worse. Don't forget emissions are still rising, coal and gas plants still being built, and new oil fields explored.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/dec/15/cop25-un-cli...

In a contrast my country went from 15% wind 30% nuclear 10% water 45% coal to 70% coal 10% nuclear/wind/water.

There are ZERO indicators showing that we will meet any climate saving goals.

On the hand, being pessimist will probably reduce any chances.

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