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Comment by tick_tock_tick | Hacker News Reader

1. Trust in journalists and news publications will continue to crater due to their inability to resist clickbait, sloppy ethic controls, and constant hyperboles.

2. China will enter a pronounced recession that is it unable to hide from the world.

3. The EU will lose at-least one more member nation after the United Kingdom leaves.

4. The credibility of scientist and research universities will hit all time lows as the effects of the replication crisis become more pronounced and climate changes predictions prove less accurate than lay people find acceptable. I expect this to result in a large pullback in funding for research that lacks a direct practical application.

5. Negative interest rates in EU will force more global dependency on the US dollar.

6. At-least one more country will adopt or de facto adopt the US dollar as their nation currency (dollarization).

7. The US will adopt a single payer or universal health care system.

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>4. The credibility of scientist and research universities will hit all time lows as the effects of the replication crisis become more pronounced and climate changes predictions prove less accurate than lay people find acceptable. I expect this to result in a large pullback in funding for research that lacks a direct practical application.

Agreed. Can also see, with the death of traditional journalism, the arts majors who are paid to write clickbait for online-only entities latching onto this to brow-beat scientists and turn mass opinion against them. The same creatures producing hysteria with writings akin to "We've 12 years to live because of climate change!" are fickle and as soon as the current narrative shifts a bit there's no telling what other damage they're capable of doing.

One of the contributing factors to why I think we'll see a significant return to religiousness in Western nations in the coming decade.

>"We've 12 years to live because of climate change!" are fickle and as soon as the current narrative shifts a bit there's no telling what other damage they're capable of doing.

One of the contributing factors to why I think we'll see a significant return to religiousness in Western nations in the coming decade.

Those hysterias and groupthinks already are their religions. Meanwhile the tail end of the distribution in the US is increasingly experiencing worse outcomes: homelessness, joblessness, suicide, etc.

While I agree the credibility of scientist and research universities has hit all time lows, I don't see a pullback in funding or any major changes

I suspect funding will decline in the next recession and not increase during the recovery.

I think journalism will find its bearings in the new digital/social media environment and gain trust again, it just won't operate/look like what we think of as journalism today or in the past.

6. Argentina is first in the waiting list.

Last week the government had to re-introduce currency controls via a 30% tax, after a 20-year long currency crisis, in which it went to 1-63 from 1-1 parity

> 3. The EU will lose at-least one more member nation after the United Kingdom leaves.

Why?

Euro, about 10 years ago there were some suggested debate to divide the Eurozone in two: nothern and southern Euro, so that you could pay with strong euro in Germany, France, Netherlands and soft euro in Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc.

That's completely stupid idea but could benefit the south economically.

Because "ever-closer union" doesn't appeal to everybody - or so I suspect. But I'm in the US, so... take with some salt.

There were definitely parties in the Netherlands and France that made leaving the EU their major plank. When Brexit turned out to be rather more difficult than its adherents imagined, support for "Frexit" and "Nexit" plummeted like a rock, and hasn't recovered.

Greece is slightly more plausible, but less because Greece wants to leave and more because the rest of the EU decides to kick them out. It's doubtful they'd kick them out of anything more than the Eurozone, though.

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