Here's the economic case for eradication:
http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Econo...
Here's the economic case for eradication:
http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Econo...
It is obvious in my mind. Vigilance is the only reason it's so close to eradication. Not completing the eradication risks enormous consequences. Not if, but when. The cost of eradication is thought to be in the billions of dollars. A pittance compared other government spending around the world.
I say just get it done so we dont have to deal with it any more. Unfortunately the plan seems to have some problems.
I'll cover man-made resurgence. There are copies of it in all major countries' virology labs. Furthermore, it can be synthetised from scratch since 2002, see NYT.
NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/12/us/traces-of-terror-the-s...
If we could find 1% of that to re-purpose...
So the downside of not spending the effort to eradicate it is that someone's child will get it. I'd hate to think that some Billionaire like Larry Ellison would get to pick another mega yacht, rather than doing this.
We know we can eliminate it, which is more than we can say for most diseases. Pumping cash into other disease treatments doesn’t have that same guarantee.
I know nothing about polio, but is this demonstrably true, is polio seen to be mutating, and it is considered a real risk by scientists that a strain could emerge that is invulnerable to vaccines?
https://en.ird.fr/the-media-centre/scientific-newssheets/464...
A big killer of children is diarrhea. 800,000 die each year and treating it cheap and preventing it is just access to clean water. You can get a huge bang for your buck by spending money on it.
And as a result, an entire community can have access to clean water.
> And as a result, an entire community can have access to clean water.
Well, no. All communities have water sources. Where digging a well is cheap, the community will have one or more.
The problem digging a well solves is that there wasn't enough water. That's not the problem a community with endemic diarrhea has. Their problem is that they're not keeping their water clean. The new well is unlikely to be different.
So a community could significantly benefit from moving from surface water to a well or a shallow well to a deep well.
And that’s not to mention other techniques that can create a safer water supply. Many of them are quite cheap.
I don't follow this area very closely, but I bet it's not natural and I suspect it's a genuine minority position.
So it seems like the injectable vaccine will be strictly preferable if the nOPV strategy fails. It's only disadvantage is that it does not prevent the recipient from spreading polio to others if they become infected, and it looks like that disadvantage may have been illusory anyway.
It's also worth paying attention to the precise distinction between vaccine-derived poliovirus, which is the problem this article was about, and VAPP. VDPD is basically equivalent to normal wild-type poliovirus in terms of its infectivity and effects, but only happens once the vaccine poliovirus has been circulating and mutating for a while and can be protected against via vaccination. VAPP is caused by vaccination and can affect the recipients or those around them, but unlike VDPD the people who suffer from it shouldn't pose any more danger to others than any other vaccine receipient.
That seems like it would make the oral vaccine even worse, compared to the injected vaccine. Again, I'm not sure why they think reintroducing traditional type-2 OPV is a good idea if the injected form that won't cause vaccine-derived outbreaks is so easily available. (Of course nOPV is expected to be better than the former OPV, but it's yet to be available.)
I'm not exactly sure why the WHO rushed to pull type 2 from the oral vaccine before there was sufficient supply of the inactivated vaccine to replace it, but I get the impression that they didn't expect it would be necessary because they thought that type 2 virus would rapidly disappear once they did so.
http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/sop-p...
People will believe all sorts of stupidity, and if anything, as poor countries get richer and more communicative, they’ll invent conspiracies and other reasons to avoid vaccination.
How else could 10B save or massively improve tens/hundreds of millions of lives.
Otherwise, you’re arguing a rock is providing safety against tigers because there are no tigers around.
For instance, if they can spend $1 for $2 of benefit, they should probably do that before they spend $2 for $3 of benefit. This is kind of a slippery point, because they are often engaging in activities where the benefit is hard to measure, but their activities should still appear rational relative to their best measures of the benefits.
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/pakistan-polio-co...
But governments around the world care more about shaking big sticks at each other than eradicating polio.