1. They don't need much time to catch up. The VW ID 3 has solid specs and costs significantly less than a Model 3.
2. Combustion cars will still be around for quite some time. If not in EU/USA/China then in emerging countries.
People have been saying this for a while now and all evidence points to it being radically wrong so far. There were numerous new entrants in the EV market this year billed as 'Tesla Killers' and all of them turned out to be massive flops so far because none of them come close to Tesla's range/features and price.
The most recent example of this is the Porsche Taycan which was originally billed as having 311 miles of range when first announced. Once the production model was rated according to the EPA standard it turns out it's range is only 201 miles. You can't buy a Tesla that bad at any price and the Starting price of the Porsche is 50% more expensive than the most expensive Tesla Model S.
Similar stories played out with the Audi Etron, and Jaguar Ipace.
As for the VW ID3, Porsche is owned by VW. If they can't make a great electric car for $150k how the heck are they going to make one to compete for 1/3 that cost? There are even early indications the the ID 3 could be a huge fiasco [0] They are running into huge software problems and are stock piling ID 3's in a storage lot until they have time to fix the software.
[0] https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-massive-so...
People have also been saying that Germany needs to 'catch up' and to follow the trend of American or British startups for 50 years and they've been wrong every time.
The German carmakers make as many cars per day as Tesla makes in a year. Over the next two decades, the majority of cars on global roads will still be non-electric.
What the German carmakers need to do is what they have always done. Slowly adopt modern technology while avoiding to buy into the hysteria of the week.
This may have been true three years ago, but Tesla made over 350000 cars last year. By your math the German carmakers are making 128 million cars per year. They are not.
And that's not just true for German carmakers. In the US there's been a trend again towards trucks as Millenials increasingly move to the Sunbelt and away from the coasts and benefit off the cheap gas prices. The idea that everyone is going to start to drive electric seems increasingly dubious to me to begin with. The big problem of the future of electric vehicles is going to be demand.
So your new claim is that the Germans build 350,000 * 52 = 18.2 million cars yearly? You have already been corrected on this point, and the real number, 6.3 million is easily discovered, so one may well wonder why you persist in the error.
It's nothing compared to the fiasco they "suffered" through the Diesel manipulations
PS. VW is owned by Porsche not the other way around.
This is incorrect, and the story behind VW buying Porsche after Porsche attempted to buy VW is one of the greatest stories in corporate finance. Additonally the two sides of the Porsche/Piëch (Ferdinand Piëch - VW Chariman - was Ferdinand Porsche's grandson) family were rivals, and Ferdinand Piëch had an affair with his sister-in-law Marlene Porsche.
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day...
Here's the second half of that story, where VW got there revenge on Porsche for the attempted take overs.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/05/volkswagen-...
The EPA range is certainly disappointing. However, the Tesla and the Porsche have much different design goals and target customers. Porsche sports cars are not meant to be inexpensive and are not meant to compete in the mass market.
For example, the Tesla is strictly direct drive, the Taycan has a two speed transmission. Ratio is 15:1 motor:wheel in 1st gear and 8:1 in second gear. Compare the two cars at a steady speed of 120 mph (if any factory stock Tesla could maintain that speed for long). I'll make a stupid guess and say that the range of the Porsche at that speed is greater than any Tesla.
I know that's not saying much in favor of Porsche for most people. I, for one, have never driven faster than 100 mph in my life. But there are people that do, and there are others that have enough money that it makes them feel good to know that they can go that fast if they want to.
The Taycan is a niche car. It will probably not sell as many units as the Panamera, which is itself a niche car.
Nevertheless, your overall point is quite strong. So many new EVs, so poorly do they compare to the various Tesla models.
How would we know ? None of the german automakers are making any of their cars electric.
They are making electric cars - iMobiles and eMachines and Tron-mobiles - one-off islands of manufacturing and design that have no connection to their actual product lines.
These are characterized by model-specific very gaudy exterior design flourishes, big seas of screens on screens on screens in the interior and, worst of all, performance numbers that are cautiously restrained by the existing ICE lines they don't want to cannibalize.
We don't want your electric car. We want your car, electric.
Wake me when there is an electric 7 series or Range Rover or A8 (or Volvo v90).
Size wise it’s about 17 inches (429mm) shorter, which may not be a bad thing. However, it shows they are making real sacrifices to hit that price point.
https://www.electrive.com/2019/12/19/volkswagen-announces-id...
If you look at Tesla's Danish site for the Model 3, the Standard Range Plus has a WLTP range of 409km and costs 369,900 DKK. The mid-range ID.3 has a WLTP range of 420 km and costs 309,995 DKK.
So the mid-range ID.3 has slightly more range than a Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus at a lower price point.
In the near future, Gigafactory Berlin will remove tariffs for Tesla, and as someone else pointed out VW will make these cars in the US.
The lowest end specs you're quoting are smoked by the Model 3, but it's a car made for Europe where low range EVs sell just fine.
The high end spec has a larger pack than the Model 3. Most likely less range as Tesla does well at efficiency, but it won't be anything to sneeze at.
The ID4 is coming to the states. They're skipping their Model 3 and just sending their Model Y equivalent, which I think makes a lot of sense.
It will have a tariff applied, but still be eligible for the full 7500 credit.
They're not going to win over any hardcore Tesla fans, but these cars are a serious effort and they're going to sell well.
https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-massive-so... solid is not a word that comes to mind