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Comment by aaomidi | Hacker News Reader

German automakers not only stopped their R&D to develop the next generation of cars. They focused their R&D on figuring out the best way to cheat on emissions testing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal)

None of the German car manufacturers actually made any worthwhile EVs, and it always seemed like they're making EVs just to satisfy EU lawmakers.

Meanwhile across the ocean, a company with essentially no production line history is able to completely destroy century old companies because they got complacent.

German car manufacturers deserve everything coming to them

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That's a total oversimplification of two very different auto markets. Germans relate to their cars very differently than do americans, including on environmental issues.

For one, Germany has a much more well-developed public transport network. An eco-minded German is much more likely to park their car and take a bus/train etc. So if you take the bus/train regularly, you don't feel so bad about having a diesel car for use when you need it. Contrast that with Tesla's home turf: California. Public transport there is ludicrously bad. The car is king. So, lacking proper public transport options, the eco-minded californian will consider electric options much more readily.

I have never met a Tesla owner on a bus or train in north america. I have met many German BMW/Merc/Porche owners on European trains. I have met plenty of Tesla owners on aircraft, going on their holidays. I do laugh at the irony of all those Teslas parked at SFO. How many of their owners are flying business class or better? How many of them have extensive solar panels on their houses? Electric cars in north america are more of a fashion statement than they are in europe.

Another big market difference: Engine size. Germans prefer smaller engines and make them work. Americans prefer larger engines that putter along at 10% capacity. Another: transmission preferences. US = 98% automatic, Germany = <30%. The markets are so different that any direct comparison can only happen after extensive couching of every statistic.

while either extreme is bad, I find it much more comfortable in CA vs Germany. Have you ever been in people traffic in subway during rush hours? Throw in flu season on the mix. I’ll take car traffic any day over that.

Electric self driving cars (land a lot of related infrastructure sounds much more compelling then anything Germany or Europe has to offer right now

I have. The people traffic in the US is far far worse. Hygiene matters more than numbers. I cannot stand the spitting, something that most of the western world made illegal for good reason. I see Americans spit on the subway platform in SF every time I go there. I've never seen that in germany/france/UK. I'm far more afraid of catching something from that single american spitting on the ground than any crowded German rail station. I would consider a Tesla just to avoid disease at BART stations, a balance that would be a non-issue in germany. Again, two very different markets.

SF is hygiene disaster. I’m 100% with you on this. It is very, very sad what has happened to SF over the last decade :(

oh boy, if you're worried about the spit. You should throw away all the shoes you've worn in SF.

There's poop on it.

Ironically, poop isn't so bad. You can get water-borne illnesses from poop but you get the nasty air-borne stuff (ie TB, measles) via saliva. Water-borne diseases can be avoided by drinking clean water. Air-borne diseases cannot be so easily avoided.

Have you gotten a lot of TB and Measles while riding the subway?

>I have never met a Tesla owner on a bus or train in north america.

>I would consider a Tesla just to avoid disease at BART stations, a balance that would be a non-issue in germany.

Ding ding ding!!!

If you move over one country and look at The Netherlands, you’ll see a lot of the same things hold true there, yet Tesla (and other EVs) are wildly successful there. Key differences are EV tax breaks and excellent public charging infrastructure in a smaller, denser country making EV ownership practical and economic. The same people absolutely do drive EVs and use public transport, usually combined with some bicycle rides mixed in.

>> a smaller, denser country making EV ownership practical and economic.

Ya. I'm in Canada. The total opposite. Vast stretches of wilderness between cities. Bitter winter cold. Darkness. And in many area less than reliable grid power[1]. If we are listed countries by the practicality of electric vehicles, Canada, Russia, Australia and Mongolia are in leagues of their own.

[1] We are having a windstorm in my area atm. Power has dropped out twice in the last few hours, only for a few minutes at a time, but at this time last year we lost power for three days.

https://www.bchydro.com/power-outages/app/outage-map.html

250ish different outages means about 35,000 people are without grid power in BC at the moment.

Downtown Toronto needs to ban cars. Sure trucks are needed all over rural Ontario, but not downtown.

I assume you mean SUVs, not the cargo-carrying semi trailers.

Banning "trucks" is like banning assault rifles: you instantly get into a huge debate about what is and isn't an truck. Is it to be be size? Weight? (Teslas are heavy) Passenger capacity? Whatever definition you use, the results will not be what you want.

It's like when london allowed electric vehicles to skip paying the congestion charge. They thought this was going to benefit the drivers of small electric cars. Then came all the electric sports/super cars. Now Jeremy Clarkson in his 200mph electric hypercar doesn't pay the tax while James May in a tiny fiat panda does.

A few rich electric super cars not paying the congestion charge is o.k., that helps to promote electric cars.

A 4ft bar/toll gate across the road. Anything under 4ft gets to pass under, anything over 4ft has to pay. Yes, commercial cars would have to pay. Tired of walking around the city and not being able to anything because of large SUVs and trucks.

You quoted only part of my argument: it’s the good charging infrastructure and tax incentives that make EVs so attractive in the Netherlands. However, I did not want to fail to mention that the Netherlands is a much smaller and denser country than Germany and this means it is much easier to put that kind of infrastructure in place.

Having a 85kWh battery in your garage would be very useful in areas that are prone to power outages.

That’s only true if the battery will export DC and you have an appropriate inverter setup. Tesla batteries won’t supply DC, at least not without hacking. And a big enough inverter to power your house is not that cheap.

But yes, I agree in principle.

On the bright side, there are CHAdeMO and CCS V2H and V2G (Vehicle to House/Grid) standards under development.

Why do you need to power your house on DC when your house runs on AC?

You don't. You use a large central inverter to convert to AC for the house load. The problem with Teslas is that they won't supply power at all with the usual home charging setup.

This is such a weird take on Canada. Feel free to comment on the situation in BC but in Ontario and Quebec the population density is such that there are no "Vast stretches of wilderness" for the greater proportion of inhabitants and you can absolutely go from Toronto to Quebec City and find more than enough chargers if you battery is running low.

The cold argument is true though. We have two EVs at home and both see their autonomy drop significantly during winter.

Try a mountain pass in winter. Ontario is flat. Even so, Ontario and BC are each more than 4x the size of the entire UK. Driving between major cities in canada is like driving across multiple countries in Europe.

Or a country in a different direction, Switzerland, where both trains and Teslas are more popular than in Germany despite the lack of many of those EV incentives, as far as I know.

"I have never met a Tesla owner on a bus or train in north america. I have met many German BMW/Merc/Porche owners on European trains."

There is so much wrong with drawing conclusions from these experiences, which itself is "a total oversimplification of two very different auto markets" and public transport markets as you yourself have noted, in addition to the fact that Tesla owners are still a very small minority of car owners which is reason enough that you'd be unlikely to meet one on a train.

"I do laugh at the irony of all those Teslas parked at SFO . . . Electric cars in north america are more of a fashion statement than they are in europe."

You seem to be skewing your view of EVs in America toward Tesla owners so that you can skewer Tesla owners.

I think that view is a bit simplistic. Tesla is catering to upperclass and upper-middleclass people. 90 % of people in Germany either wouldn’t be able to afford or wouldn’t be willing to pay 50.000 € (what the cheapest Tesla model costs here) for a small sedan when they can get a Diesel car with similar capabilities for 20.000 € or less. And honestly most people don’t care much about emissions, they care about usability and ease of use, and there gasoline cars are just much more convenient than electric cars right now. I have several colleagues that drive Tesla and I find it a bit awkward that they have to plan their hotels and schedule around the available charging infrastructure even for small distances (e.g. for going from Berlin to Leipzig to attend 36c3). EVs would be awesome if the charging infrastructure was there but it isn’t and it won’t be for several years to come.

Curious which German made Diesel cars costs 20.000 € or less. I get the impression from Germans that EVs are not a good solution to replace diesel. Perhaps there just isn't motivation of the populas behind the techonology. Which could be blamed on the lack of infrastructure to support charging. Also in the United States a lot of people have garages that they can install charging stations in. I wonder what the percentage of Germans who have a private garage is.

Anecdotally I’d say it’s about the same: if you live in a sub urb and have a detached or semi detached home you have a garage; if yuh live in an urban environment you often don’t. I think these factors are the same in both countries.

Irrelevant of diesel, if you only need a city car, say alike the Citroen C1, you can get a gas car with 600km range for about 12,000EUR. That 1.5x better range for 20% of the price and 25% smaller on top of that. For the same package, the Citroen C0 has about 20% of the range for twice the price.

They're quite awful cars thpugh. I had a rental C3 Aircross in Portugal, it wouldn't climb a moderately steep hill without pressing the pedal to the metal.

The VW Polo turbo diesel has a list price of 15,000€ before discounts.

Most people in Germany rent, so they even less power to make these decisions. Americans tend to own nice and big houses with a lot of garage space and all the freedom that comes with it.

> Curious which German made Diesel cars costs 20.000 € or less.

All the VW Polos. And around the 20,000 euro mark you can get the majority of the VW Golf Diesel models and my personal favorite, the Skoda Octavia (made just across the border, in Czechia). The first and second-generation diesel Octavias were built like tanks, there are many example of them reaching the 1 million km mark, and the latest ones are pretty decent, too.

If you’re living in the countryside it’s usually not an issue, most people in major cities park their cars on the street though, so for EVs to become viable you would need a much better infrastructure. This will happen but I estimate it will take at least 5 more years.

Berlin to Leipzig is 193km... shouldn't be a problem for a long range Tesla to do the return trip. I'm sure there's plenty of chargers? There's a supercharger right by Leipzig.

I haven't been to Germany in a long time but when I last visited luxury vehicles were quite dominant. Also doesn't gas cost a lot in Germany? Wouldn't that make the total cost of ownership even more compelling for EVs?

> Also doesn't gas cost a lot in Germany? Wouldn't that make the total cost of ownership even more compelling for EVs?

Electricity also costs a lot in Germany (for consumers at least), which offsets the savings on gas. Currently I'm paying about 30ct/kWh (Euro, so about 33.5ct/kWh in $) plus a 15€ monthly base fee. Gas is at 1.45€/l (or ~$6.14 per Gallon) right now. Last time I ran the numbers I ended up with a slightly higher cost per km with an EV compared to a normal car - before even factoring in the purchase price.

If you want to charge at a public charging prices sometimes go up 55ct/kwH, due to them having rather significant fixed costs for measuring power (each station needs to have a certified meter). This gets even more significant if you consider the fact that most people in urban environments won't have a house with a garage, which forces them to use public chargers.

Model 3 does about 4.1 mi/kWh. So that's 8.1c/mi (your prices). To pick one example, the A3 TDi does 42 mpg highway. That's 14c/mi. It's more like 19c/mi city. I just picked the most efficient car at the first German company I thought of. Perhaps there are other companies that make more efficient vehicles.

Also, at least in the US, most power companies have some kind of incentive pricing for people who own electric vehicles, if they charge at night. For example, during the summer, ConEdison has a plan under which you pay about 1/5th as much for power from midnight to 8AM. Assuming Germany's electric infrastructure is as advanced as that in the US (I hope!), then that reduces the Tesla's cost to about 2c/mi.

(Not factoring the reduced maintenance cost of a Tesla. Of course if you're really trying to save dough you buy a used Nissan Leaf or something sensible like that.)

While not German I need to highlight the fact that in Germany power generation relies much less to fossil and nuclear than in the US, roughly 1/3 less (~30% compared to ~82%, see links below) That makes Germany a bit more advanced on the generation part but also more expensive - without going into the nuclear debate here. So it is not apples to apples comparison at the end of the day

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-c...

But Germany appears to rely on Coal more than the USA for power generation.

Coal is the largest source of electricity in Germany. As of 2016, around 40% of the electricity in the country is generated from coal. Germany has been opening new coal power plants until recently, following a 2007 plan to build 26 new coal plants

Compare the energy pie chart for Germany vs USA. (Add brown coal and hard coal percentages)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States

> As of 2016, around 40% of the electricity in the country is generated from coal.

As of 2019 this is 28%.

> Germany has been opening new coal power plants until recently

While closing many older ones.

> following a 2007 plan to build 26 new coal plants

Which it didn't.

That's fine, but I used the German parent poster's energy prices in my calculations, and the Tesla was still cheaper per mile.

I should have clarified probably that I was referring to this part of your post: >Assuming Germany's electric infrastructure is as advanced as that in the US (I hope!), then that reduces the Tesla's cost to about 2c/mi.

Yes there’s a supercharger there but as my colleague explained it you can forget about it when you’re at an event where many other Tesla drivers go, as you’ll have to queue a long time to use it. As I said EVs will be awesome when the infrastructure is finally there, right now it isn’t though so for most people gasoline cars are still more convenient.

Additionally, more people do not have a garage to park in, so loading at home is not an option, and many companies assume their workforce to use public transport and don't provide parking either.

If you own a Tesla the infrastructure is there. Our family regularly takes cross country trips in our Model 3. It is more convenient than our gas car because AutoPilot makes driving long distances on the highway much much easier.

Charging has never been an issue for us, Tesla's SuperCharger network is excellent and routing to chargers on long trips is seamlessly integrated into the car's software using Google Maps.

As for cost, the cost of a base model Tesla has come down more than 50% in the past decade. I highly doubt price reductions stop there. One more 50% reduction and these cars will be on par with the cheapest compact gas cars available today.

Well that would be fantastic, I think the model 3 is a nice car but for what it is I find it quite overpriced right now (probably a good strategy for Tesla though as anyway they need to ramp up their production first so they sell at a price that creates just enough demand for their capacity). I think at 25.000 € I would be happy to buy one. Right now I could still buy a Mercedes C class hybrid for the price of the Tesla here. As I don’t need a car urgently I’ll wait a couple of years in any case, it seems there will be a lot of movement in the EV space in the coming years.

Tesla is a rather simple car at the price of S500 and stretched S600 if fully loaded.

Now, have you ever experienced the level of comfort you get even in the most basic sonderclasse? Tesla simply doesn't feel like a true luxury car.

What is the level of comfort you get in a basic soundercLasse? Can you describe it?

First, rear seat height is much higher. Rear seat couch is much more unadjustable. Climate control for rear seats that really work. Rear passenger comfort is a head above Tesla's

Materials in interior are a grade above Tesla's. Everything feels much less "plasticky." I don't demand unicorn leather, but Tesla's first gen model S materials are of no higher grade than that used in "economy cars with leather"

Suspension is a bit better, Tesla is close though.

Sound insulation is better.

I’ve been in taxis in Germany. I’d take a tesla over an s class any day.

In 2Q 2019, USA market, the Tesla Model 3 outsold the combined total of BMW 3 series, Audi A4 and Mercedes C/E class.

https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/08/Tesla-Model-3-vs-Lux...

Eh? And now compare with a Honda Civic or a Toyota Camry. Even among just the higher end those three are not nearly as big in market share as they are in Germany - in the US they are just one more model to compete, in Germany they own most of that market.So it does not exactly tell us much if Tesla sold more there. So in sum, I don't see how you are refuting the parent commenter.

And most of the Americans use iPhone too. Not true for the rest of the western world. You always tend to read from online how poor American working class are, but the fact is Americans either have insane amount of disposable income or you spend like crazy. That is why so much ecommerce is focused on Americans and every ad click you make costs way much more than others.

They buy a lot of stuff on credit that would be paid from savings in the EU.

US income and disposable income figures for the middle class are among the highest in the world. Only a few wealthy countries like Switzerland and Norway compare. In terms of household disposable income, the US is the highest in the world. The full-time median US job pays about $50,000 now.

The US household disposable income figure is drastically higher than in most of developed Europe. 50% higher than Sweden, the Netherlands or Finland:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/725764/oecd-household-di...

This is has been true for a long time:

https://skift.com/2013/05/15/u-s-has-the-highest-disposable-...

The median household disposable income figure typically places the US in the top few nations:

https://mises.org/wire/when-it-comes-household-income-sweden...

The median household wealth figures are higher in the US than in Germany or Sweden (but lower than France or Britain).

The US also has an extremely progressive income tax setup, with the middle class having among the lowest income tax burden of any developed nation.

At $50,000 in a typical city like Atlanta or Pittsburgh, the typical person will pay 20% in total income taxes. In Texas (no state income tax) you can climb up to around $70,000 and still stay under a 20% rate. In most of the US you can make $200,000 and still be close to a 30% rate. The US middle and middle-upper class is entirely oblivious to how hyper low their taxes are (as a trade-off they are not getting guaranteed universal healthcare either of course, their employer must cover it or they have to).

If the US ever fixed its healthcare disaster and brought costs under proper control (shaving a trillion dollars in annual costs), in financial respects at least it'd be nearly a paradise.

The thing that gets me is electricity is EVERYWHERE in the developed world.

There are already libraries and other public places that slap a couple of EV chargers in the parking lot.

This was never feasible with gasoline.

It seems that when EV's are common enough, we may reach a tipping point where EV chargers are as ubiquitous as parking meters and free/paid wifi at current business establishments.

Today, a cafe almost can't stay in business without offering WiFi and laptop chargers.

The same may happen with EV charging.

Also, once EV battery capacity doubles (not far-fetched) the density of chargers will become even less important.

And, at that point, ICE cars will be at a staggering disadvantage to EV's, because it easier to put a paid charger in every parking space than it is to expand the ubiquity of gas stations.

And it's also harder to boost the range of ICE vehicles.

There's lots of EV's in Norway, but chargers are not ubiquitous. Yet at least. There's often a few chargers at shopping malls and big public parking lots and so on. Anyway, I have an EV and have never used any public charger. I do all my charging at work (or at home if in a pinch). I assume it's the same for many people.

EVs are only a bit over 10% of vehicles in Norway (though a majority of new vehicles), and most of those were bought in the past few years. The average vehicle in Norway is 10 years old, when EVs were less than 1% of new vehicles.

I don't think that's enough vehicles or a long enough time to see the kind of ubiquity they are talking about. Will be interesting to see in 10 years or so once many of the older ICE vehicles have been taken out of service and electric vehicles are a majority of cars on the road and businesses have had time to adapt to high numbers of EVs.

> Today, a cafe almost can't stay in business without offering WiFi and laptop chargers. The same may happen with EV charging.

It certainly will. Every fast-food restaurant in the US and most other countries will have EV chargers in the parking lot, with few exceptions. It'll happen extremely quickly as EVs go mainstream. Roughly 20 years from now I think there will be at least one million charging stations at such commercial locations across the US. McDonald's has five or six dozen charging units in Sweden as one example of the chains being eager to seek a competitive advantage. They've said they intend to blanket their locations in the Netherlands next.

Your analogy is ironic because there is almost no cafes in Germany with free wifi. The telecommunications infrastructure in general is terrible. Even directly in the city center I barely have mobile internet reception and I have doubt that with EV charging stations it will be different, especially with all the corruption coming from the car manufacturing corporations.

there is many uses where charging will be at least problematic. e.g camping away, or doing a road trip, or doing farm work. It's not enough for cafe's to provide chargers, because it's not as if people park right outside businesses, especially in old european towns.

i live in an island that is powered by an Oil power plant. it would be bad for the environment to use an electric car, power outages do happen, and the city is old and badly designed so that for the vast majority of people it's not possible to charge at home, they d have to add charging stations on every street.

i guess for the tesla's market - which is above average buyers - it is possible to charge easily. or it also happens to be their second car

Why do you think an EV would be bad for the environment in this island scenario?

Oil-burning generation electrical plants should power Evs about 1/3rd more efficiently than an equivalent ICE car.

Some comparisons: https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2017/dec...

Thanks for this, it still shows a rather small benefit, however. I do think that in a few years time electric can become the best choice. The mechanical simplicity alone is worth it

In Europe you go to a supermarket that has a large parking space. If you can charge there then you basically don't need to charge at home, especially if you also can charge at work.

Yes it will be good once the infrastructure is there, which will be the case in 5 years I think.

I see this argument ("similar capabilities for 20.000 € or less") a lot, and I'm not buying it. I supposed it depends on what "capabilities" you're talking about (number of passengers?), but a Tesla is going to be faster, quicker, safer, cheaper to fuel and cheaper to maintain than any 20.000 € car I can think of.

> but a Tesla is going to be faster, quicker

Not really. An old mk4 golf will let you do 650km at 200kph on the Autobahn with 5m refueling time. But Germans are going hard after no speed limit so that will soon not be an argument.

I'd be onboard with your view if it wasn't for BMW and Mercedes. (And Audi a bit). None of those are cheap. Not Tesla-expensive, but there aren't really any cheap Mercedes or BMW, and they do sell a ton of those. Tesla is not "too expensive" for people buying new S class or 5/7 series.

Every single point in this comment is wrong and yet it is the highest voted comment here.

1) They didn't stop all R&D except how to cheat on emissions tests. They cheated on emissions tests but their R&D remains very high.

2) Both BMW (the i series) and Porsche have got excellent electric cars.

3) Tesla hadn't destroyed the German manufacturers. They are all profitable and sell more cars than Tesla

I'm a big Tesla fan, but there's no need to make stuff up. The German manufacturers have challenges, but they remain successful, innovative companies.

> None of the German car manufacturers actually made any worthwhile EVs, and it always seemed like they're making EVs just to satisfy EU lawmakers.

To be fair, this is most legacy automakers.

To be fair, electric vehicles are generally unprofitable and people who buy cars prefer not to pay more money for less impressive capabilities.

Spending money to develop products that you can't sell at a profit is not generally a winning strategy, which is why the EV market is sort of a waiting game, in which automakers try to time their investments against various government subsidies and regulations — knowing that the moment it really is a more profitable approach, your competitors will all be flooded with capital and trying very hard to seize the same markets that you are after. (Heck, if you do too well against them, you could see government intervention to prop up your competitors in the name of saving jobs, whether the US government or otherwise. See also: the Renault/Nissan merger proposal that made Ghosn a political target. They were trying to do joint work on EVs to keep costs down, and the merger would be the next step — but Nissan is Too Iconic and Important to Japan™ to allow it.)

The real kicker is it's not even all that an effective way to counter climate change. It's more feel good BS than anything else.

I would get an electric car even if I didn’t care about climate change at all. I really don’t think that’s why most people bought Model S cars worth six figures...

Well of course. You can’t care about climate change, and buy a car.

This is why I prefer carbon taxes over EV subsidies.

An EV that largely sits in the driveway doesn’t accomplish anything toward any climate goals.

Well damn. Guess I need to stop walking and cycling and make sure to drive the car more.

A Carbon tax done right would have WAY more efficacy than EV subsidies, dollar for dollar.

Can you please provide some evidence for your claim? My quick research showed that about 29% of GHG emissions is from transport and a significant part of that is from cars and trucks

In the US it’s 29% of GHG, 59% of which is light vehicles (i.e. the candidates for feasible electric replacement).

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fast-facts-transportation-...

While helpful, a 100% replacement is only a reduction of ~20% GHG, and that depends on 100% renewable charging the cars.

Well yeah? A 20% reduction is absolutely massive! I don't think anybody expected replacing ICEs to solve the climate catastrophe single handedly.

Most electricity in the US isn't carbon-free, and isn't likely to become so in the near future.

From a climate perspective, living close to work, and carpooling, bicycling, or riding a motorcycle are all much more effective than buying an electric car.

Heck, even in a city like New York with a good (electric) mass transit system, the main climate savings is that people are close together and go shorter distances. (The carbon emissions per passenger-mile are not very impressive.)

The efficiency of Internal combustion engine is about 25%, whereas a combined cycle power plant can be around 60% efficient. Even with transmission, storage and electric motor inefficiencies, EVs come ahead. Add the fact that more and more percentage of power is come from renewables each day, I’d say EVs are more than feel good BS. Sure, staying closer to work may be a better idea, but we can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

You forgot to account for manufacturing and transport of a new car and disposal of the old that wouldn’t have happened if replacement wasn’t forced early.

Also, efficiency isn’t the number to compare. It’s CO2 emissions.

We don't have time to wait for one climate policy to come into full effect before starting work on the next. We need to replace ICE cars with BEV while simultaneously replacing fossil fuels for electricity generation.

Given we need reductions of 90%-110%, electrifying cars (or synthesising instead of drilling for the fuel) is a necessary but not sufficient part of the solution.

If that's what you consider ineffective, then what do you consider effective?

There is no single source of GHGs higher than 29%, so if that's ineffective, then every intervention is ineffective.

Where did I say it was ineffective? Hmmmmmmm?

Vehicles are not a single source, they are millions upon millions of single sources and replacing the entire fleet will take decades even with subsidies.

Also, you need to read my comment more closely. The most important part for any of this EV stuff to matter is getting all electricity generation switched to carbon free. The current left-wing thinking in the US is “no nuclear” so EVs will be powered by GHG sources until that changes (or there is some unforeseen breakthrough in battery technology there is not yet evidence or theory of).

EVs are necessary but not sufficient. Without the generation change they are now just natural gas/coal fired vehicles.

Electric cars (mostly via Tesla) is a middleground to scaling battery (and eventually solar) production. All those cars displace the use of fossil fuels before EOL, and then go on to become grid storage, reducing reliance on peaker plants and making renewables even more viable.

Making battery development a cost/density competition is what will help us escape fossil fuels.

Tesla is not destroying any company. I don't know why you think they do.

In the USA the market share of light trucks was 73% in Q3 2019. Those are 100% not Tesla's.

Tesla's revenue is ~23% of BMW group's revenue. Impressive for sure but they are not destroying anyone.

It is also estimated that if Ford and VW bring an EV on the market they will easily sell 100k units with their first model.

The world market is bigger and different than you think. The German brands are loved in China. And markets like Brazil are upcoming.

In fact, while Ford, for instance, is gutting their sedan offerings, they are making money hand over fist in SUVs and light trucks.

Sorta. They stopped production of the Fiesta, Focus, and Taurus in North America as they were not turning a good profit. They'll continue to produce the Focus and Fiesta for the European market where they far more popular.

That said Ford's also focused quite a bit on hybridization of their more profitable models. The Explorer and Escape are now offered in mild hybrid options, with a FWD PHEV in the Escape coming Q2 to Q3. They've confirmed that the F150 will be receiving both hybrid and EV drive trains as well. IIRC the Mustang lineup will be receiving hybridization as well.

American 'trucks' are terrible. The USA has a huge import duty on light trucks, really good ones are kept out. Import duties, cheap gas, and CAFE rules on station wagons skew the market in the USA in favor of light SUVs

> [...] and CAFE rules on station wagons skew the market in the USA in favor of light SUVs

I never really thought about that. I rarely see station-wagons anymore these days. Great point.

Pray tell, what "really good ones" are being kept out? I've driven Toyota, Nissan and Honda trucks; Ford,GM and Dodge are competitive with all of them.

Kei trucks are being kept out. Only ones that are older than 25 years are let in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kei_truck

While this is true. It is also short sighted.

1. They don't need much time to catch up. The VW ID 3 has solid specs and costs significantly less than a Model 3.

2. Combustion cars will still be around for quite some time. If not in EU/USA/China then in emerging countries.

The VW ID 3 is not coming to the US, has a 45kWh battery, 50kW charging, and 50 mile shorter range for $33,180. So both in terms of specs and availability it’s still significantly behind the Model 3.

Size wise it’s about 17 inches (429mm) shorter, which may not be a bad thing. However, it shows they are making real sacrifices to hit that price point.

You're thinking of the base model. The ID.3 comes in three battery sizes with up to 125kW charging. Here's the selection of ID.3 models with Danish pricing (which isn't comparable to the rest of Europe):

https://www.electrive.com/2019/12/19/volkswagen-announces-id...

If you look at Tesla's Danish site for the Model 3, the Standard Range Plus has a WLTP range of 409km and costs 369,900 DKK. The mid-range ID.3 has a WLTP range of 420 km and costs 309,995 DKK.

So the mid-range ID.3 has slightly more range than a Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus at a lower price point.

I agree it’s a more reasonable comparison. However is that pricing including a tariff on one or both of them? 55,400 USD for the Model 3 is 58% over base US pricing and the ID 3 jacked 36% @ 41,630 euros vs the stated 30k euros in Germany.

Yes, it does include a 10% tariff on the Model 3, which is why I did my sibling conversion as price in home country converted to USD.

In the near future, Gigafactory Berlin will remove tariffs for Tesla, and as someone else pointed out VW will make these cars in the US.

The EU prices include ~20% VAT, so it's more like $27500 to compare to the US Model 3 pricing. And they said under 30k EUR - we're both assuming exactly 30k.

The lowest end specs you're quoting are smoked by the Model 3, but it's a car made for Europe where low range EVs sell just fine.

The high end spec has a larger pack than the Model 3. Most likely less range as Tesla does well at efficiency, but it won't be anything to sneeze at.

The ID4 is coming to the states. They're skipping their Model 3 and just sending their Model Y equivalent, which I think makes a lot of sense.

It will have a tariff applied, but still be eligible for the full 7500 credit.

They're not going to win over any hardcore Tesla fans, but these cars are a serious effort and they're going to sell well.

They’re manufacturing the ID.4 in the States, it’s only the first year’s supply which will be imported.

"They don't need much time to catch up."

People have been saying this for a while now and all evidence points to it being radically wrong so far. There were numerous new entrants in the EV market this year billed as 'Tesla Killers' and all of them turned out to be massive flops so far because none of them come close to Tesla's range/features and price.

The most recent example of this is the Porsche Taycan which was originally billed as having 311 miles of range when first announced. Once the production model was rated according to the EPA standard it turns out it's range is only 201 miles. You can't buy a Tesla that bad at any price and the Starting price of the Porsche is 50% more expensive than the most expensive Tesla Model S.

Similar stories played out with the Audi Etron, and Jaguar Ipace.

As for the VW ID3, Porsche is owned by VW. If they can't make a great electric car for $150k how the heck are they going to make one to compete for 1/3 that cost? There are even early indications the the ID 3 could be a huge fiasco [0] They are running into huge software problems and are stock piling ID 3's in a storage lot until they have time to fix the software.

[0] https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-massive-so...

>People have been saying this for a while now and all evidence points to it being radically wrong so far.

People have also been saying that Germany needs to 'catch up' and to follow the trend of American or British startups for 50 years and they've been wrong every time.

The German carmakers make as many cars per day as Tesla makes in a year. Over the next two decades, the majority of cars on global roads will still be non-electric.

What the German carmakers need to do is what they have always done. Slowly adopt modern technology while avoiding to buy into the hysteria of the week.

> German carmakers make as many cars per day as Tesla makes in a year

This may have been true three years ago, but Tesla made over 350000 cars last year. By your math the German carmakers are making 128 million cars per year. They are not.

per week then, the gist of it is that the electric car market is small compared to the gigantic scale that the German car industry works at. And that's going to stay this way for a long time, and there is no reason for industry leaders to panic. They're big companies with comfortable profits who have time to adjust instead of trying to overcorrect.

And that's not just true for German carmakers. In the US there's been a trend again towards trucks as Millenials increasingly move to the Sunbelt and away from the coasts and benefit off the cheap gas prices. The idea that everyone is going to start to drive electric seems increasingly dubious to me to begin with. The big problem of the future of electric vehicles is going to be demand.

Nokia was a big company with comfortable profits too in 2007. If you haven't yet I'd suggest going and driving a Model 3 around for a day. Tesla is supply constrained right now the demand is infinite for these cars and soon trucks as volume drives down price.

> per week then

So your new claim is that the Germans build 350,000 * 52 = 18.2 million cars yearly? You have already been corrected on this point, and the real number, 6.3 million is easily discovered, so one may well wonder why you persist in the error.

It doesn't sound like a huge fiasco tbh. Those cars were scheduled to be delivered in Summer and the software patches are supposed to be delivered over air after they've patched those 20.000 cars. No customer will get their car later because of this.

It's nothing compared to the fiasco they "suffered" through the Diesel manipulations

PS. VW is owned by Porsche not the other way around.

Volkswagen and Porsche are both owned by The Volkswagen Group, which in turn is largely owned by the Porsche family, so I guess you are both right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group

VW is owned by Porsche not the other way around.

This is incorrect, and the story behind VW buying Porsche after Porsche attempted to buy VW is one of the greatest stories in corporate finance. Additonally the two sides of the Porsche/Piëch (Ferdinand Piëch - VW Chariman - was Ferdinand Porsche's grandson) family were rivals, and Ferdinand Piëch had an affair with his sister-in-law Marlene Porsche.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day...

Here's the second half of that story, where VW got there revenge on Porsche for the attempted take overs.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/05/volkswagen-...

The most recent example of this is the Porsche Taycan

The EPA range is certainly disappointing. However, the Tesla and the Porsche have much different design goals and target customers. Porsche sports cars are not meant to be inexpensive and are not meant to compete in the mass market.

For example, the Tesla is strictly direct drive, the Taycan has a two speed transmission. Ratio is 15:1 motor:wheel in 1st gear and 8:1 in second gear. Compare the two cars at a steady speed of 120 mph (if any factory stock Tesla could maintain that speed for long). I'll make a stupid guess and say that the range of the Porsche at that speed is greater than any Tesla.

I know that's not saying much in favor of Porsche for most people. I, for one, have never driven faster than 100 mph in my life. But there are people that do, and there are others that have enough money that it makes them feel good to know that they can go that fast if they want to.

The Taycan is a niche car. It will probably not sell as many units as the Panamera, which is itself a niche car.

Nevertheless, your overall point is quite strong. So many new EVs, so poorly do they compare to the various Tesla models.

"They don't need much time to catch up."

How would we know ? None of the german automakers are making any of their cars electric.

They are making electric cars - iMobiles and eMachines and Tron-mobiles - one-off islands of manufacturing and design that have no connection to their actual product lines.

These are characterized by model-specific very gaudy exterior design flourishes, big seas of screens on screens on screens in the interior and, worst of all, performance numbers that are cautiously restrained by the existing ICE lines they don't want to cannibalize.

We don't want your electric car. We want your car, electric.

Wake me when there is an electric 7 series or Range Rover or A8 (or Volvo v90).

As a person who in general dislikes big cars and SUVs (even from the perspective of driving them, it just makes me feel like i am in an APC completely disconnected from the world), if Mercedes managed to pull off the electric Gelandewagen properly, they would make some crazy bank. I know for a fact that i would be drooling all over it, despite my distaste for SUVs.

> VW ID 3

https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-massive-so... solid is not a word that comes to mind

VW is being heavily watched by people on reddit. The ID platform has regular news. I don't know the details but it seems VW has changed course substantially.

Amazing how people keep blaming VW and Germany! They are not the worst offenders, by far:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_emissions_scandal#Previ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nitrogen_oxide_on-road_em...

> German automakers not only stopped their R&D to develop the next generation of cars.

Volkswagen is currently running a multi-billion euro initiative for the next generation of cars.

Over reaction, but Tesla still feels like plastic/cheap ( interior) to me.

They are eating some lunch from some carmakers, but not as much as you think.

Eg. Tesla was #11 in sales in September 2019. Some "hybrids" are absolute shit though.

And this is with a lot of EV tax incentives.

> German automakers not only stopped their R&D to develop the next generation of cars.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/346985/research-and-deve...

Paywall - what’s your point?

It's a stats set of Daimler R&D spending from 2011 to 2018 (no paywall with a Google referrer, sorry). It's about doubled in the time, and that looks about the same for the other big ones, I think, certainly some googling on BMW R&D etc. would suggest so.

Personally, I don't think emissions test cheating takes your R&D from 3 bn. to 7 bn, so the parent's comment seems to be oversimplifying or wrong.

> German car manufacturers deserve everything coming to them

What's coming to Volkswagen is that they'll be the world's biggest producer of EVs. It's not that surprising. After all, they are the world's biggest car company.

2020 is the start of Volkswagen's big EV push. This is what Volkswagen's 2020 EV plan looks like:

- VW e-Up!: https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-16...

- VW e-Golf (sold over 100,000 but will be replaced by the ID.3): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0

- VW ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPjvgXWA78E

- VW ID.4: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...

- SEAT Mii: https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-o...

- SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g

- Cupra Tavascan (maybe, not confirmed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w

- Skoda Citigo iV: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-skoda-citigo...

- Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E

- Audi e-tron (and also the new "sportback" variant): https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron

- Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU

- Audi e-tron GT (maybe 2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ

- Porsche Taycan (and the Sports Turismo wagon variant in future): https://www.porsche.com/usa/models/taycan/

More models in 2021 and more in 2022 and so on.

The Volkswagen ID.3 will be a big seller in Europe and then later on in China. It's a popular form factor with good range at a good price.

by end of 2021 they only expect 330k total BEV vehicles globally.. that is not a big push from a company making over ten million cars per year. now they expect to reach a million per year by 2023 but that still keeps their percentage very low.

the simple truth is, no they aren't trying very hard. they have to cater both to politicians and unions at home neither of which can sustain the job losses BEVs will lead too; not just in the manufacturing but it cascades into after market, petrol refining, gas stations, and more.

It's just a multi-year initiative. Takes a bit time to develop the cars, have the factories for them and bring the cars to market.

If you follow Volkswagen news, you can see that they are steady making progress and and have a very large initiative.

Taycan and e-tron are both huge flops so far and the ID.3 is off to a bad start as there are reports that they are having massive problems with the cars software and are literally building the cars and plan to store them in a lot for a year while they sort out the software issues.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-massive-so...

Is it? Then why is the Audi e-tron outselling the Tesla Model X in Europe:

https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/12/europe-november-2019.h...

Spec wise etron competes against Model 3 and up coming Model Y not Model X. Large cars and SUVs like S and X don’t have a big market in Europe

No, that's just making excuses. The Audi e-tron is in no way aimed at the same segment as the Model 3.

The Audi e-tron and the Jaguar I-Pace both outsell the Model X and the Model S in Europe. The e-tron and the I-Pace are doing well for what they are: expensive luxury vehicles.

Model S and X sales were substantially higher then etron is now before the the Model 3 was introduced.

The Taycan seems a huge success. The reviews are extremely positive (many pointing how much better it's put together than the Teslas) and production has been doubled to cope with the high amount of reservations

https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/29/porsche-taycan-reservation...

That article was written before two key events that have probably taken a lot of the shine off. First Tesla's Model S Plaid edition was announced and seen racing around the Nurburgring. Second the official EPA range rating was released and it came in a third less than expected. Those reservation holders who's commitment so far is only a ~$3k refundable deposit are going to have second thoughts.

[0] https://www.engadget.com/2019/12/11/taycan-turbo-epa-estimat...

[1] https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-plaid-nurburgring-ne...

> First Tesla's Model S Plaid edition was announced and seen racing around the Nurburgring.

Hrm, does the Model S Plaid come with a free tow truck or is that an optional extra: https://www.thedrive.com/news/29946/porsche-taycan-laps-brok...

> Those reservation holders who's commitment so far is only a ~$3k refundable deposit are going to have second thoughts.

Are they? Let's see what actual Taycan owners think about it so far: https://electrek.co/2019/12/21/first-us-porsche-taycan-owner...

And let's see what the performance is like compared to a Model S:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/30467/watch-a-porsche-taycan-t...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uum9nffLasQ

But don't worry about it. There's a number of EVs which outperform Teslas.

I think you overestimate the importance of the EPA rating for a worldwide vehicle (Europeans really don't care about the EPA for ex). The reviews are overwhelmingly positive and full of superlatives - this is the true "high end electric car" to beat now. Yes Tesla might tweak the Model S to make it a bit faster, and it's significantly cheaper, but it also feels significantly cheaper to sit in and drive, and it's unlikely to magically improve tomorrow because Porsche has had decades of refining those qualities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vq6KEOIiMg

The EPA rating of electric vehicle range more accurately represents highway driving range than the WLTP rating which is geared toward stop and go city driving. Hence if you are doing long distance trips on the highway the EPA rating will more accurately represent your real life experience. For those used to gas mileage being worse in cities and better on highways with gas cars electric cars are largely opposite. Lower speeds use less energy in general.

[0] https://insideevs.com/news/365941/what-car-different-results...

> there are reports that they are having massive problems with the cars software and are literally building the cars and plan to store them in a lot for a year while they sort out the software issues

The plan to pre-build several parking lots full of cars before starting to sell predates the issues they face with the software. It was probably made with "let's catch any issues before delivery" in mind (which now paid off), but it's also because VW isn't a company that creates hype through limited availability and pre-orders: once the model is brought to market, you're supposed to be able to go the store and get a car in a few days or weeks.

Given that their previous models were quite software-heavy already, it's not as if this is the first time they have to bring software onto devices. I have no idea how often similar issues happened in previous roll-outs, but this is certainly the most closely watched VW model ramp-up in decades because of the novelty of them going all-in on EV.

"VW e-Up!"

Oh dear, that name doesn't translate well into British English. Sounds like it's made in Yorkshire..

I don't think that is fair. The Japanese, Korean, Italian, French and other Americans still have not made any worthwhile EV cars either. It's Musk's drive that is the anomaly not German complecancy.

> The Japanese, Korean, Italian, French and other Americans still have not made any worthwhile EV cars either.

That's wrong. And pretty US centric.

The Japanese / French have the Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe that have excellent sells in their respective countries. They however do not fight on the same ground than Tesla.

Except Italian makers I see way more EV cars from those manufacturers on the road then Tesla in my corner of Europe.

BMW i3 is an excellent electric car

Yeah, if you want to go around the block a few times before you run out of juice.[1] A lot of Americans need much longer range.

The EPA range of the 2017 and older models was 81 miles. For about a year I did a one-way commute of about that distance. Only for 2019 did BMW come up with a somewhat reasonable range of 153 miles.

I don't take the REx variant seriously. They are a really bad joke. Why not add an IC engine merely to get to a 200 mile range? And at the same time lower your electric-only range to 126 miles because of the added weight. That's beyond stupidity.

Even with all that, I can't buy a new BMW i3 locally.

The Beaverton dealer claims to have 231 vehicles, exactly zero battery vehicles: https://www.kunibmw.com/new-inventory/index.htm

The Portland dealer claims to have 111 vehicles, exactly two BMW-i vehicles. They are both i8 at about $170,000 each: https://www.bmwportland.com/new-inventory/index.htm

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i3#Fuel_economy_and_range

"German quality" turned out to be German marketing.

Perhaps developing an electric vehicle isn't that difficult, as Tesla shows, and German carmakers are just waiting for the right moment.

EVs are simpler products that make lots of knowledge and experience useless. And the most expensive part of EVs is the battery made by Asian companies.

So it you start "too early" you introduce negative scaling effects on your highly profitable combustion business AND have to invest a lot upfront for the EV models.

There is no way to win this game, many workers will lose their jobs and also initial investments will affect profit and dividends. If you are too slow, Tesla will take the profitable segments anyway.

Do you think the same about reusable spaceflight?

tesla is not aiming at VWs audience. They make sexy, expensive and fast cars that target the market of ... porsche cayenne? It's not clear if tesla's model will lead to economies of scale that will make these cars cheap. it's a bit premature to say that they 'll destroy old companies. There are already pretty good EVs like the jaguar I-pace , but they dont have mass market appeal. If tesla manages to cut into VWs profits, i think you ll see a lot of EVs being pushed out fast.

Tesla has not, as yet, either turned a profit or “completely destroy[ed]” a single “century old company”.

If you remove the constraint of operating profitably, many companies can do the impossible. :)

(I am not saying Tesla won’t be profitable, or can’t be, or that the German automakers don’t deserve some blowback for poor choices—just that you are making false claims and also comparing apples to oranges.)

I wonder if Volkswagen Group (one of the biggest carmakers, they own VW, Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Seat, Skoda) is waiting for the right moment to buy/take over Tesla... Just one stupid tweet might be all it takes.

They cannot afford unless Tesla shares crash.

>Tesla has not, as yet, either turned a profit

This is false. https://qz.com/1734436/tesla-turns-a-profit/

Ahh, thank you for the correction! I must’ve missed the last quarter’s results.

They will lose over a billion dollars again in 2019. Shifting around expenses to post a single quarterly profit isn't a huge accomplishment, is it? If/when they can hit the SP500 we can talk about profit.

Amazon part deux.

Tesla cars are profitable after their initial investment. Every Tesla car has turned profitable as far as I'm aware. The only reason Tesla the company does not make profit is because they use the profits from the previous car to invest in the next car and make it even bigger than the previous one.

It's also pretty stupid to turn a profit because that just means more taxes.

You want to always keep your profits at zero.

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