Given how conservative Japanese prosecutors are reputed to be in bringing cases in the first place and Ghosn's decision to flee , I'd bet they have reasonable evidence.
Olympus - Accounting fraud - overseas whistleblower was the one prosecuted!
Lots of other cases - Japanese CEO's doing MUCH MUCH worse face zero prison time and/or prosecution.
A lot of folks posturing here. The compensation charges - which would have been the first to go to trial if they'd ever gotten to trial (the prosecutors have been dragging things out) were laughably weak. If this is what puts CEO's in jail for years it's a total scam - 100's of japanese CEO's do this and much more. These companies are tied together every which way.
The problem is that if the super rich and powerful are allowed to blatantly show their middle finger to the law and profit, it creates distrust in government which historically resolves through revolution or nowadays in more peaceful countries resolves through election of unsavoury leaders to positions of power.
Doing a runner will probably irrevocably lose him a lot of popular support from people willing to give him the benefit of doubt no matter what PR dog and pony show he puts up. So looks like he's going to be in Lebanon for the next decade.