Asking for a friend...
Also, I understand your frustration with this topic. The method of guilting people into changing makes me sick. I can’t think of a more counterproductive method of evangelism. We need to make real products that do the things that will give humanity a prosperous future. Politics isn’t how we will get out of this, imho. Science and engineering is the key.
The studies indicate that it's a lot cheaper to avert climate change than to deal with the consequences. So, economically speaking, it is a no-brainer.
> Politics isn’t how we will get out of this, imho. Science and engineering is the key.
We mostly have the technological means now to deal with the issue, but politics are the impediment. We can't convince people to do things we know are the sane way forward.
Technological improvements will help if they come through, but it's madness to bank the future of our civilisation on future breakthroughs that may or may not happen.
It has been repeatedly demonstrated that countries can come together for the Olympics. It has yet to be demonstrated that they can do the same to fight global climate change. The opposite seems to be the case so far, as far as I can tell.
> The method of guilting people into changing makes me sick.
100% agree.
> Politics isn’t how we will get out of this, imho. Science and engineering is the key.
To move forward, we are going to need both science and engineering, and some minimum level of agreement in Democratic countries. Perhaps if we could manage that, China might consider getting on board as well.
There are many vested interested, motivation by greed who are working hard to fight any action, which is easy enough to understand.
What I fail to understand is the (voting majority of the) populous just don't seem to care.
Unfortunately, for these reasons I too find it hard to believe this is a problem that will be prevented.
1) Actual solutions to climate change are not taken seriously (nuclear power, natural gas)
2) Effect size is still unknown or small. 0.3C over decades is not much to write home about.
3) Solutions to climate change have to include developing / third world countries.
And most importantly:
4) Oil/gas with capitalism has lead to the greatest throughput of innovation known to mankind, lifting billions out of poverty, medical and scientific advances, and allows 7B people to live on earth. Removing and replacing this will have consequences that IMHO go beyond a 0.3C increase in temp and a few cm increase in water level. Just MHO.
We can do this right now. Sequestration of all human-driven carbon output at current costs and with current technology amounts to something like 1.5% of world GDP.
As for cooperation, that's a bad faith argument. Saying you won't do something because no one else will is just a sneaky way of saying you won't do it. Someone has to start. Someone has to be willing to start. If you aren't willing to start, you simply don't want to see the problem solved.
Just come out and give us the cynical argument if you really want to go there: the bulk of the human damage[1] from climate change will be felt in still developing equatorial nations and not in the temperate latitudes where you and your friends live (hell, Russia and Canada might well come out "ahead"!).
[1] The ecosystem damage and mass extinction event will be pervasive everywhere, but then I doubt you care about that either.
Or people in Houston who see 500 year floods yearly. Or Californians breathing wildfire smoke. Or Hondurans suffering from drought. Or people in Miami wading through floods on sunny days.
What's most unsettling is, there's no reason to expect that the same psychosocial tribal mechanisms are not constantly active, even when the facts are on the side of one's tribal beliefs. This leads to any number of blind spots, not only in truth-seeking and self-correction, but in social dynamics (in-group vs. out-group). Our brains are exceptionally, insidiously good at working backwards, not just to convince others, but to convince ourselves. Those who can spin on a dime and update/discard ideas in the presence of new evidence are a truly rare breed.
Two of my favorite books on motivated reasoning and self-deception:
Strangers to Ourselves, by Timothy D. Wilson: https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674013827
The Elephant in the Brain, by Robin Hanson & Kevin Simler: http://elephantinthebrain.com/
I would say this is also a good description for todays climate change deniers.
> "The earth used to be round but over a timescale of billions of years it slowly flattened out like a ball of silly putty left sitting on the table."
Since you've clearly got it all figured out, Tell me, how are we going to address China's runaway coal plant development? Bangladesh's rampant deforestation?
Are you so bold as to say that you know what's best for the people in those countries?