Can we all agree to never use that word? Actual prodigies are measure zero in the general population. Terry Tao is a prodigy. The rest of us are just normal schmucks.
Prodigy suggests that talent comes naturally to and is dismissive of the massive amount of work that goes into preparing for something like the IMO.
My general feeling now is that talent as perceived by others is mostly a function of hard work. Looking back, the level of persistence I was able to apply to mathematical problems at such an early age without any real supervision was incredible. I was almost entirely self-taught from age 7-10 and without being on a strict curriculum, this included some college level math. I think this was a function of a lot of things that don't have much to do with natural ability.
There's a huge difference between learning something because some external pressure dictates that you learn it and truly immersing yourself in something and just letting go. Math isn't that exciting for most people, so the vast majority of people never cross over to the latter. So the extremely small percentage of people that are able to cross the chasm and deal with math natively can stand out.
I mean, my basis for that estimate is that I know a bunch of people without such immersion who got that far when I was a kid, who were on the regular school education track, didn't self-educate outside that, and didn't have much external pressure either.
Edit: But I don't mean to imply these people absolutely never thought about math or numbers outside of the classroom, because it's interesting, and they most certainly did, just no traversal through a curriculum, or deep immersion.
And imagine trying to make the same argument for basketball. Kids with low field goal percentages just don't want it enough?