But you won't engage with the science. You're just probing at basic problems of epistemology and hand-wringing. Literally no one can argue against that and it isn't productive. What about the science do you want to discuss?
Your heuristics need more tuning. I've engaged with the science, and I will do so again in the future.
> You're just probing at basic problems of epistemology and hand-wringing.
Incorrect. I was pointing out some reasons for my skepticism. I literally said that.
> Literally no one can argue against that and it isn't productive.
If climate change enthusiasts choose to ignore those who explain why they're not jumping on board the train, and therefore fail to gain anything useful from the conversation, the fault is not mine. If you prefer to carry on with your same approach rather than constantly improve it, be my guest.
> What about the science do you want to discuss?
I'm not particularly interested in the science, it seems clear enough to me to justify action, at the very least from a risk perspective. I'm more interested in what the underlying cause is of the inability for the cheerleaders to accomplish anything beyond attracting attention. If this problem is real, at some point you're going to have to figure out how to get people to take action. If you can't figure that out, perhaps you should be open to new ideas, particularly if they are coming from someone who is not responsive to your current techniques but willing to explain why.
The problem isn't with the "cheerleaders" as you put it.
It is with groups and parties with interests aligned with oil and carbon producers that are degrading all efforts.
Why is it the "cheerleaders" fault, rather than the largest entities fighting against it, the hordes of people online "just asking questions" (but really question begging, hand-wriging, and engaging in long but useless discussions about whether or not to trust authorities), people who actively spread disinformation, and people who repeat the same defeated anti-AGW talking points everywhere they go?
I find it baffling you think the failure is here, and not with Trump, the GOP, Dems backed by oil/coal/heavy industry, etc. The issue isn't the science (as you suggest), the issue isn't with the technology or economics (though to some degree it is).
For that matter, the entire world has committed to CO2 reduction. So it seems clear that the effort of "cheerleaders" is turning to action. Subsidies are going to solar, wind, etc. Car companies producing electric vehicles are getting subsidies. We have had cap-and-trade on the worst GHG in the 90s and it worked. We banned freon in the atmosphere from creating a large hole in the Antarctic.
I don't see the issue you insist on.
Ok, this is reasonably fair disagreement. I hope we can agree that THE indisputable problem is, despite the science being conclusive enough to justify action on a prudent risk management basis (the stakes are so high, erring on the side of caution is the way to go), no consequential actions are being taken despite this issue having significant attention for many years now.
My claim, "I'm more interested in what the underlying cause is of the inability for the cheerleaders to accomplish anything beyond attracting attention.", is true, in that they are not accomplishing anything despite expending a lot of energy and successfully drawing a lot of attention and public mindshare (kudos for that), yet nothing consequential on an actually implemented policy basis has been achieved. But, despite this being true (potentially useful point), it is by no means a comprehensive summary of the overall problem (so, imperfect).
Your claim: "It is with groups and parties with interests aligned with oil and carbon producers that are degrading all efforts."
I'm quite the anti-corporate conspiracy theory enthusiast, and I have no problem accepting that this is at least partially true, but I find it hard to believe that oil companies are largely controlling worldwide governments, almost without exception. And even if they did have such control, is it sufficient to defeat a proper, near-unanimous grassroots campaign for change? Who knows, but the current situation today is that a significant portion of the public continues to support non-environmentally friendly candidates in many countries. It should be noted, that they do this does not guarantee that all of these voters support the "anti-environmental" portion of the overall platform (an extremely common logical error that can be regularly observed in forums and the media). Despite this uncertainty, I think it's pretty safe to assume there are significant numbers of people who, regardless of what their true, unemotional beliefs are on climate change, are not willing to align with advocates. That this may involve incredibly illogical thinking might make one angry, but I propose it is something that should be studied very, very carefully. Stubborn donkey "deniers" may be ultimately cutting off their noses to spite their face, but so are authoritarians who refuse to exert any effort to understand why they behave like this, and whether this behavior can be changed. This common attitude is what I am criticizing.
> Why is it the "cheerleaders" fault
Thinking of it in terms of "fault" is irresistibly attractive, but counter productive.
> ...the hordes of people online "just asking questions" (but really question begging, hand-wriging, and engaging in long but useless discussions about whether or not to trust authorities), people who actively spread disinformation, and people who repeat the same defeated anti-AGW talking points everywhere they go?
I am regularly accused of being on of these people, despite there being little if any content in what I write that actually suggests this. The heuristic behavior seems to be something the along the lines of "if you are not with us, you are against us". I see myself as belonging to a small third camp: those who are actually paying attention to details, where it matters: psychology, epistemology, propaganda, etc.
Also: it would be in your best interest to realize the degree to which what you say above is based on an interpretation of reality, not reality itself. Capturing an accurate measurement of the reality of human beliefs is extremely difficult at best, and it's especially difficult when we're not even trying. Ask yourself this: why has no politician floated the idea of performing some extremely detailed polling to try to suss out what people's beliefs really are....to see whether our strawman assumptions about the others are really accurate? Or, any new approaches to try and break this logjam? Is it because they're stupid? Personally, I don't think so. I don't know if what they're up to is malicious, but I do not write this off as incompetence.
> I find it baffling you think the failure is here, and not with Trump, the GOP, Dems backed by oil/coal/heavy industry, etc.
There is failure all over the place! Fault with Trump and Republicans is glaringly obvious, but how many zealots are willing to even consider that the Democrats (in their actions, not their words) are little more than two sides of the same coin?
"The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum....” - Noam Chomsky, The Common Good
> The issue isn't the science (as you suggest)
This seems like a rather delusional statement.
> For that matter, the entire world has committed to CO2 reduction. So it seems clear that the effort of "cheerleaders" is turning to action.
Promises of action, to be more precise. I committed to eating healthy and going to the gym six months ago. Nothing has changed.
> I don't see the issue you insist on.
That's fine, I try to the best of my ability to point out what I believe people are missing, but it seems I'm not a great communicator of ideas. If you are satisfied with the current rate of progress, no need for more thinking or improvement, carry on as you are and reap the benefits.
Personally, I think we are on a very dangerous path - I believe we need to stop mistaking our heuristic-powered, simplistic fantasies about others' beliefs for reality, and start studying what is really going on, both for individuals as well as politicians. The climate science work is complete enough, the task now at hand is communication and consensus building. Authoritarianism, propaganda, and shaming doesn't seem to be getting the job done, perhaps it's time to try something else.