In a few years time, I expect we'll see a significant increase in the crime statistics in Flint.
However, much of the crime isn't reported any more, or acted on. Flint has a ratio of almost 1 police officer per 1,000 residents, with is a quarter of a city like nearby Detroit.
Without cops to record the crime, much less act upon it, the numbers are artificially deflated. Someone could break into your home and since the cops don't come by for 6 hours t oinvestigate it just gets forgotten about.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2689675/
> Childhood lead exposure is associated with region-specific reductions in adult gray matter volume.
> Affected regions include the portions of the prefrontal cortex and ACC responsible for executive functions, mood regulation, and decision-making.
> These neuroanatomical findings were more pronounced for males, suggesting that lead-related atrophic changes have a disparate impact across sexes.
Combine that with the adverse selection of population, it could get quite a bit more dire. If you had significant resources and flexibility, you’ve probably already moved your family out of Flint. As things get worse, people with “any” rather than “significant” resources/flexibility will move out. As you remove swaths of population who (for whatever reason) tend to commit less violent crime, your remaining violent crime rate gets worse.