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Comment by unityByFreedom | Hacker News Reader

You're imagining a scenario where everyone has a self-driving car and completely ignoring cost and social factors.

Who among us would admit, "yes, I am a bad driver, I need this more expensive thing to take control in the event of an accident"? Very few is my guess. In 2019, people use these for convenience, not because they think the system is a better driver. I bet that's true even for Waymo's taxis.

As for getting drunk drivers to use self-driving, that's as easy as asking them to either stop drinking or not drive. Then there is the cost. I wouldn't be surprised if the unemployed drink and drive more often.

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I don't think total coverage is necessary. If 10% of the cars are self-driving, to a first approximation there will be 10% less drunk drivers.

Cost is definitely an issue, but reducing accidents and increasing convenience have a cash value which could pay for it if the research pans out.

What social factors do you have in mind?

If self driving cars exist courts will be more likely to take away drivers licenses from those who drive while drunk. Thus I'd expect 10% of the cars being self driving to result in something like 20% less drunk drivers because such drivers are more likely to get the self driving cars - not that they want them more than anyone else but because they are not given any choice.

> If 10% of the cars are self-driving, to a first approximation there will be 10% less drunk drivers.

It seems unlikely that people who buy/use early self-driving cars have the same percentage of drunk driving as the general population. Surely employment rates would be a factor, for example.

I'm not sure whether or not there is a correlation here. Anecdotally, it seems to me there are plenty of wealthy, employed people who buy new cars and crash them after drinking.

But even if it is true that those who drive cheaper, older cars are more likely to drive drunk? Today's new cars with high-tech self driving features are tomorrow's affordable used cars. You have to start somewhere.

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