The article [1] posits reasonable hypotheses for why the number might be lower, but doesn’t attempt to calculate it, ending with “math...always making things confusing.”
San Francisco spends a lot on its homeless problem. (Using the article’s numbers, stripping out eviction prevention, about $200 million a year.) It has little to show for it.
[1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Myths-like-homel...