Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
Apparently the same is true for 2 US factories, so that's 3 EV factories and -3 ICE factories.
https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/vw-zwickau-factory-electric-c...
Of course, if/when Tesla ever builds a European plant it may be much smaller than their current footprint. That isn't uncommon for Europe, so if I had to hazard a guess, the VW plants will average less than 400k/plant as well.
Even going from where they are to 2 million per year over the next few years would be a great accomplishment, though. And that certainly seems feasible, if not necessarily likely. ICE companies have an even worse track record than Tesla at keeping promises on electric vehicle schedules.
Source: https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektroautos-Im-VW-W...
There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.
The problem is that EVs are going to cannibalize the legacy auto industry. It takes far less people [1], far less parts (typical combustion engine has ~2k moving parts, a Tesla powertrain has ~17), just a much smaller supply chain overall [2] to deliver EVs. And these EVs will last much, much longer than your traditional combustion vehicles.
Legacy automakers are fighting over the smaller pie that will be left over, hence the handwringing. Innovator's Dilemma [3]. Governments should be looking at the auto industry the same way they look at coal: upskill those who will stay, transition out those who a redundant. It's quite worse than coal, actually. Coal only employs ~50k people in the US. The auto industry employs over 7 million.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/gm-strike-highlights-how-shi...
But even that strategy will only last for so long. Whenever autonomous fleets take over they'll sell even fewer vehicles per person.
The result is then just delayed by historic capital and reallocation.