VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
This, the "ID-3" looks like a prius. I'm sure it's a fine car, and I really do love EVs, but man oh man I wish the designers would take a page from Tesla's book.
edit: to be clear, my current car (that my wife and I share) is a chrysler pacifica minivan, which I believe to be one of the best cars I've ever owned. I have no problem with "dorky" vehicles, I am a dork. It's just that if you want to break out of enthusiasts buying your cars for the novelty, you have to make them appealing.
It's like driving a go-cart in the city and it charges 75% capacity in about 15 minutes on fast chargers (enough for about 100 km more).
Personally I find it looks quite cool after I did a custom paint job. You can even get it in Honey Yellow [1] from the shop, but personally I think it's a bit gaudy.. My daughters really wanted that colour but I had to nix it!
[1] https://www.greencarguide.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/V...
But beauty is as always in the eye of the beerholder. I don't really fancy how the back of the e-up looks either, but I didn't mind the ID3 all that much.
From wikipedia:
ID.3:
Length 4,262 mm (167.8 in)
Width 1,809 mm (71.2 in)
Height 1,552 mm (61.1 in)
Length 4,255 mm (167.5 in)
Width 1,799 mm (70.8 in)
Height 1,452 mm (57.2 in)
(tinfoil hat) Seems like they want this to fail to keep ICE and all the supporting industries alive for more $$. After all service/parts is where the real money is...
Everyone in Europe is happy about getting more space in a smaller car. And this compact car shape is common here as well.
The car is completely normal and good looking. Limousines and SUV are not the only valid shapes for cars.
That doesn't make sense. They are not spending tens of billions of euros on a project they want to fail.
In any case, the world's two biggest car markets (Europe and China) are introducing stricter fleet emissions standards. If car companies want to stay in the car business they have to electrify to meet the new standards.
It's a matter of urgency for Volkswagen so they can avoid as many EU emissions fines as possible. Paying fines is just dead money. You're much better off investing that money in new car models, which is what Volkswagen is doing.
Toyota's in a better position to meet the standards because they sell a lot of hybrid vehicles.
Someone once explained to me that it was because EVs try and minimize the weight of the chassis to extend the range of the vehicle, and it's difficult to get more traditional curvatures in the chassis while doing that and balancing with safety/cost.
No idea how accurate that is.
The Pruis is highly optimized for minimal aerodynamic drag. It's no coincidence the wound up with roughly the same shape. The Model 3 is a similar shape but more sleek because they have more length to work with.
And
> Model 3 - Bug Edition.
Choose one...
Because when the first Prius launched, it looked like a normal car.
Nobody wanted to buy one.
The second-generation Prius had an incredibly conspicuous shape, and it sold like hotcakes.
Because when the first Prius launched, it looked like a normal car.
See the various generations here: https://global.toyota/en/prius20th/evolution/
Seriously, it was a very odd-looking car: http://www.imcdb.org/i044705.jpg
To the extent that it looked like "a normal car", it looked like an absolute bargain-basment Toyota along the lines of a Tercel or something. Different is one thing; different and ugly is quite another.
Nobody wanted to buy one.
According to Toyota, the company was only "breaking even" on each one sold. They weren't really pushing them either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius#First_generation_...
The second-generation Prius had an incredibly conspicuous
shape, and it sold like hotcakes.
It's not as if the second-gen was a simple rebadge of the first-gen with weirder looks.
First-gen was a funky sedan of limited utility and performance. Additionally the concept of a hybrid vehicle was bizarre and foreign at the time.
The second-gen was a massive improvement in every way. Significant and objective improvements in power, range, comfort, capacity, and so on. Furthermore the hatchback/fastback body style is of much greater convenience and utility.
As far as looks... while it was certainly unconventionial and perhaps not beautiful, the second-gen model looked more "futuristic family car" and less "weird ultra-budget sedan" like the first one.
I could be wrong but I think beyond that it's also highly regional/cultural.
Teslas look awful to me; they remind me of so many other examples of recent bland US car design: particularly Ford, and with a few hints of the sort of 90s-mazda-esque Corvettes of the past 10-15 years. All very popular aesthetically but to me seem a bit lacking in anything unusual or novel. I would say the same of a fair amount of Japanese car design.
European car design (particularly French, Italian) is often ugly, usually novel, sometimes beautiful. Germans are a bit more conservative (especially VW), but they definitely have their moments.
I am European so I may simply be missing the nuance of non-European design.
I think there are many fine examples of great car designs. Recently, I can think of Mini, Fiat 500, Alfa 147, Alfa MiTo, Golf Mk I & II, Lamborghini Gallardo, BMW 3 series E21-E46...
Fiat and Citroen are, on the more reasonably priced end of the spectrum, doing innovative/interesting things that are at the very least not bland.
GRILLs, Grills everywhere!
Yaawwwwhhhrrrrr! Grrrrrrrrr!
Grills == BBQ == Manly!
Sorry, I'm just poking fun. There are so many auto style people that go ga-ga over something that is fundamentally inefficient aerodynamically.
I'd like to note that Fiat and Citroen, based on my rather sparse knowledge, are basically not even bothering with EVs at the moment.
I always thought BMWs grills looked more snout-like than BBQ-ish...
They have the same ability to combine total inoffensive blandness, with some detail or corner that just looks plain wrong, ugly, the wrong size or damaged with vehicle lines that neither align nor complement each other. The Tesla Model 3 ends up looking like a poor attempt at a parts bin special, as though nothing at all was originally intended for the Model 3. Of course some actual parts bin specials were very successful - like the first model Land Rover Discovery.
I don’t know whether the Model 3 or the ID3 has it, but this “design is subjective” meme is wrong and I think a little bit disrespectful to design as a profession, where people spend decades learning how to build things that are—objectively—appealing and functional.
Of course individual reactions and needs vary. But that doesn’t mean the design space is a totally relativistic fog.
"Subjective" doesn't necessarily mean "highly varied" on a per-individual level. Mass appeal is about a group of people sharing perspective as a result of a common societal context.
Talk about being disrespectful to design as a profession: the psychology and context that informs such subjective views is a big part of design. Saying it's objective reduces something of deep complexity to a set of simplistic rules that can be blindly followed by anyone.
That said, have you seen the new Honda city car? It's beautiful.
The so far is key. BMW said the same when they launches the i3, that EV owners want to make a "statement."
But I think that's actually holding EVs back. I don't want to make a statement with my car (or phone for that matter). Always making EVs look exotic says that this product is only for enthusiast. I want the android of EVs not the iPhone.
It’s not just electrics. Honda used to make sleek cars but now they have weird shapes and curves for no reason. Comes off as desperate.
I am not a fanboy, but Tesla simply has the best EVs on the market.
Their vehicles are so bland-looking that a buddy of mine stated a few years ago that he'd never seen a Tesla. Even a few years ago, if you worked at Microsoft like he does, I guarantee you parked next to one some time this week, and saw at least one on your way to or from work today. To quote another MSFT friend: "buying a Tesla is like a rite of passage around here."
I'll bet he remembers the singular time he saw that Ferrari 458 that parks in building 32, though.
Personally, Ford Taurus, Tesla 3/S, same difference: nothing wrong with it, nothing memorable.
Most VWs are pretty bland. They're maybe slightly at the more recognisable end of the spectrum, but only incrementally, because that's the look that works at mass market scale. So given that, why does their mainstream, bet the company EV have to look like something from a 90s SF action movie?
The point about Teslas looking like other cars is that being an EV should be a normal, everyday thing. That's exactly the future that Tesla is aiming for. Whether a car is bland looking, weird looking or whatever should be entirely decoupled from whether it's an EV or not. They are orthogonal concerns. The weird look of this car is a worrying sign that VW does not get this, and is therefore missing the plot in a near future where EVs will be just cars.
The ID.3 looks like a nice hatchback to me. Here's Volkswagen's ad for it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPjvgXWA78E
The augmented reality heads up display looks interesting.
I suspect this is mostly myth propped up by apocryphal assertions that Prius sold well due to its distinct look. But I am just a long-time curious observer, not an expert.
What I read was that the sales of Toyota's hybrid versions of their "normal-looking cars" (Camry Hybrid, etc) were disappointing in comparison to the Prius (especially if the theory is that people were avoiding the Prius due to design and would prefer a less-radical car that still got great gas mileage). I don't know if there's any truth to that.
That's totally why I bought my sweet sexy Spark EV.
Because they're targeting early adopters who want to buy a car that looks like a science project. Once they move onto targeting early mainstream, it will start looking more like other cars. Just look at how the Prius changed its look over time.
Beauty is relative. I find the look of Tesla “dorky”, especially the piggy nose of the Model 3. However, I’d not defend a design of id.3.
https://www.wired.com/2010/07/vw-300k-evs-annually-2018/
I want the company to succeed at EV's more than anyone but if the rollout of the e-tron is any indication it is not going to be smooth sailing:
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/19/18508066/audi-etron-delay...
https://slickdeals.net/f/13163326-21-000-off-msrp-2019-volks...
https://www.motor1.com/news/378009/vw-golf-8-production-deta...
VW will finally solve problem with other brands within VW group - Skoda and Seat are sucessful brands and often cannibalize VW models (Skoda Kodiaq vs VW Tiguan, VW Passat vs. Skoda Superb etc...). VW presented recently strategy for next few years where they said that Skoda will become 'low-cost' brand and Seat will be more 'luxurious'.
Skoda is allowed to have only 2 EV models in next few years - minicar Citigo and Octavia (midsize sedan/combi), nothing else will be allowed (except few hybrid models) so it will be easier for VW brand to become EV leader in EU in next few years.
Also in the case there will be crisis VW will throw it's cheaper brands 'under the train' in order to survive :/
I completely agree with this. In fact, in my country many people are buying Škoda Superb even if they can afford Audi A6, because they don't see Audi A6 as being worth 2x the price.
> After defeat device story VW group is anyway dead to me.
I noticed that all Volkswagen and smaller Audi cars released after 2015 came with much lower interior quality (more scratchy plastics), but the quality of Škoda and Seat cars has noticeably increased.
> And I don’t believe in their EV initiative. They do it only to make people forget the story with defeat device.
No, they do it in order not to become the Nokia of automotive industry after iPhone's release. Because that's where the entire European market is heading after the introduction of stricter emission standards.
The Skoda Vision iV is not a bad looking EV:
"Carmakers keep designing these cars thinking we want to buy their new electric cars, they don't realize we just want to buy their regular cars, in electric"
You think it's just the base feature you need to recreate, then a few months in you're stuck in the weeds recreating the hundred details you didn't factor into the redesign.
(this is my life, I rebuild rails/jquery features into far better designed Vue.js ones with powerful flexibility added on top and constantly get hung up on the details)
Let's hope this isn't some flash in the pan, Tesla has shown the feasibility, but an EV future really needs one of the big conglomerates onboard as well.
Multiple companies competing will drive batteries well under ICE drivetrains economically in short order.
- new cars now come with 6 years warranty which is more than anything anywhere in that price range
- their second hand car program is great, includes 2 years of manufacturer warranty. Last time I wanted to buy a compact I very seriously considered getting a 2015 VW Golf diesel, it includes all future required updates to reduce harmful emissions and it has all the nice advantages of a diesel (high torque, low RPM, nicer IMO engine noise). I ended up deciding against it because the newest VW diesel is 2015 and they started supporting Apple Car/Android Auto in 2016 models.
All in all like I said I don't know if Dieselgate hit their bottom line but around here it seems the streets have a lot more VW cars (a lot of e-Golfs too) since the scandal. No wonder since their cars are now such a great deal.
As someone who took advantage of this deal, this no longer applies starting in 2020.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2019/08/01/volkswa...
Also it's fairly well known that 2019 GTIs (a pretty popular car) has a serious defect that has already started the process to begin a formal recall. It's believed that VW modified the car to meet emissions standards, and essentially broke the car in the process so badly they can't fix it. Most dealerships just buy back the car if you mention the problem.
https://www.golfmk7.com/forums/showpost.php?p=835026&postcou...
So I feel like VW is still doing some shady shit regarding dieselgate.
One of the things they talk about that I find interesting is how different EVs are from ICE cars.
I think we all assume that the companies that have gotten good at making cars, should be able to adapt to EVs, but it's a fundamentally different problem space. EVs and ICE may look alike on the outside, but are very different on the inside. I can't think of a good analogy, but if someone has one please share.
If EVs have to truly succeed they have to be coming from more than one brand.
- Mitsubishi Outland PHEV - Hyundai Ionic series - Chevy BoltEV
Lincoln Aviator PHEV, Prosche Cayenne Hybrid covering luxury SUV segment.
There are tons of EVs and PHEVs out there which pretty much cover a large swath of vehicle size already.
The problem is these sites that are supposed to promote Electric Drive train jerk-off weeks on Tesla rumors and Elons tweets.
We kept being told that Tesla's lunch was going to get eaten by the "big boys" but that's been 8 years coming and we're still... waiting.
Disclosure: I own a non-Tesla EV.
I have the Kia EV, and I don't love it, but I really like it. For the price it is great.
is that not exactly the niche that the Model X is trying to serve?
There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.
The problem is that EVs are going to cannibalize the legacy auto industry. It takes far less people [1], far less parts (typical combustion engine has ~2k moving parts, a Tesla powertrain has ~17), just a much smaller supply chain overall [2] to deliver EVs. And these EVs will last much, much longer than your traditional combustion vehicles.
Legacy automakers are fighting over the smaller pie that will be left over, hence the handwringing. Innovator's Dilemma [3]. Governments should be looking at the auto industry the same way they look at coal: upskill those who will stay, transition out those who a redundant. It's quite worse than coal, actually. Coal only employs ~50k people in the US. The auto industry employs over 7 million.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/gm-strike-highlights-how-shi...
But even that strategy will only last for so long. Whenever autonomous fleets take over they'll sell even fewer vehicles per person.
The result is then just delayed by historic capital and reallocation.
Apparently the same is true for 2 US factories, so that's 3 EV factories and -3 ICE factories.
https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/vw-zwickau-factory-electric-c...
Of course, if/when Tesla ever builds a European plant it may be much smaller than their current footprint. That isn't uncommon for Europe, so if I had to hazard a guess, the VW plants will average less than 400k/plant as well.
Even going from where they are to 2 million per year over the next few years would be a great accomplishment, though. And that certainly seems feasible, if not necessarily likely. ICE companies have an even worse track record than Tesla at keeping promises on electric vehicle schedules.
Source: https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektroautos-Im-VW-W...
2022 seems to be the bellwether year of EVs as many manufacturers are predicted to have models by then and more than one in general.
Maybe they're waiting for legislative support to promote EVs?
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a20733943/2022-volkswa...
This whole article is weird. Are we supposed to pretend the e-Golf hasn't existed for years?
> While the ID.3, priced from around $30,000 with a range of 200 miles or more, is aimed at countering the threat from Tesla’s Model 3, its stiffest competition will come from gasoline-powered cars such as VW’s own Golf hatchback.
I mean... yeah? The Model 3 isn't a hatchback. Americans still have reservations against hatchbacks for some silly reason. And the real competition against a VW hatchback is going to be the Prius. Tesla is a tech gadget. The VW is a car. You really can't discount the fact that many people buy Tesla because of the coolness of the gadgets.
They're not selling the ID.3 in the US initially.
Europe will get the ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPjvgXWA78E
And the US will get the ID.4 which is a bigger car on the same MEB platform: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...
Longer term they probably will make both cars available in both markets.
Edit: I was wrong. I could lease Macan for ~700€/month.
Anyone can buy a Porsche with a payment plan. Unfortunately, I know someone who did.
The article seems biased and politically charged (US vs EU car manufacturing).
> Infiniti, the luxury brand of Japanese automaker Nissan, will start phasing out gas-powered vehicles in 2021 and switch to “all electrified” models, the maker’s new CEO Hiroto Saikawa said Tuesday afternoon.
That seems like a fairly reasonable goal to me.
- lacking infrastructure in cities
Will they have enough demand?
There's nothing like a Supercharger network to make people buy so many non TSLA electrics. So, how will VW have so much demand to create so much capacity?
The only solution to the climate catastrophe was a massive change in the economy, supply chain, and western consumer culture. Hybrid car technology was a viable wedge or mitigating factor five or ten years ago. Now our only option is to adapt
"The Zwickau plant is supplied with electricity by Volkswagen Kraftwerks GmbH. For a few years now, this company has been offering pure green electricity sourced from hydroelectric power plants, wind farms, and solar parks. This green electricity is TÜV-certified. Even though it costs a little more, Volkswagen Sachsen (with the Zwickau, Dresden, and Chemnitz sites) has been using this green electricity since April 2017. “It is completely CO2-neutral“"
https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/vw-zwickau-factory-electric-c...
Thankfully, in general the United States energy grid is getting less CO2-intensive.
The public charging stations in my town (in Germany) are powered (hooked up to our common electricity network, but in terms of energy bought for them) using hydro power from a nearby river.
Any car owner could use their own generator using coal or oil to power their private charging point though. Generally speaking the only remedy to that is to make CO2 intensive power cost prohibitive. Our government decided just today to attach a CO2 tax to sales of energy sources with CO2 residues, so let's see how that develops.
Lifetime emissions for EVs beat ICE cars in 2-5 years [citation needed]
In California you can lease a Leaf for $95 / month after subsidies. That actually is pretty competitive with a sub $5000 price point on a competing ICE car that would require the purchase of gasoline.