If Google is no longer the top dog, who on earth is?
EDIT: Ill add some detail to my point;
Google ramped up huge to where they are now, Facebook has been ramping up as well - but as Google enters maintenance mode with all of its service and tech - Facebook is still in a massively growth oriented position.
Even if they're new user adoption slows, or even stops - the number of products based on their data-set alone, for their 500MM users that can be built is huge - and the value of those products even larger.
This is why all the defections from Google have occurred.
They built an amazing foundation for the internet at Google, now they will build upon that with far more specific and deep information of the user base and how they are all related to each other
What facebook has is something that is required for the true "semantic web" which has been talked of for decades. Very very deep and specific information on every aspect of it's users interests. This is something that Google thought it was going to accumulate - but the problem is that from googles view, every person is a silo of interests - where they would have to do a lot of correlation on the back-end (which they have done) through their varied products.
Facebook, rather, has built a true interest portal and people are throwing ever single bit of human interaction data they can right into i - and linking it all up for facebook.
There is a very very interesting future (albeit scary) if facebook doesn't fuck this up.
I don't think so.
Google's revenues 2010: $29,321,000,000
Facebook's revenues 2010: < $1,000,000,000
Google is also solving much more challenging technical problems (not to dismiss the smart people at Facebook, but Facebook is really only interesting because of its extreme scale. Except for that, it's pretty much a CRUD app)
2) I think the best analogy is to 2003. At that time, when people started to talk about Microsoft vs. Google, I was like, "huh? What do you mean? Google does search and MS makes operating systems."
It was after the IPO, with Gmail, that Google moved on from being a category killer in search to just demolishing so many other verticals (Gmail, Maps, Docs and more recently Chrome, Android) and taking the throne from MS.
If history repeats, it will be over the next two years -- probably when Facebook launches social search, and it's really good -- that the game will have decisively shifted.
PS: I'm sure you didn't meant it this way, but pointing to the revenue scoreboard is what Microsoft employees did and still do when talking about MS vs. Google. MS still makes more money than Google and always has. The top dog title is about mindshare/rate of growth/poaching ability in addition to revenue.
sources: - http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_17152005 - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/apple-profit-rises-...
Facebook does, at least in the sense that both operate in the web/user space, and both have advertising as their fundamental source of revenue.
Apple & Google are both pretty big companies and will likely be competing in the same space given the number of products they both own. Apple's iAds are a direct competitor to Adsense on mobile devices, Apple TV/Google TV, etc.
Give it 3-5 years. You will see Googles revenue slow/plateau a bit - but if Facebook can do what it thinks it can do with its userbase and dataset, it is going to be very interesting.
Also, I predict that Facebooks revenues will not skyrocket -- but rather their influence, reach and stranglehold on way too many aspects of on-line life will take deep root.
They will likely begin an acquisition play very soon which will be focused on payments, security, retail/ecomm and analytics.
While google has been a gateway to the internets information - I see facebook trying to be a funnel/traffic-cop to your online relationships interests and transactions.
I wouldn't be be surprised if facebook bought something like square.
That being said, I have to agree that Facebook still has a lot of places to go, but I wouldn't put it past Google with new leadership at the top to come out fighting and bring a few new tricks to the table.
I look forward to what the future brings. Just for all that is holy get rid of the damn Facebook connect crap.
Google on the other hand has both feet firmly planted in the internet infrastructure. At this time there are more people using them directly then any other web service, for both work and personal reasons. They create real and tangible value. They actually make money for the people using them.
This is a big difference. Sure, for the lonely entrepreneur it doesn't really matter if his startup is about lolcat pictures - as long as he gets enough visitors, he's set for life. But in the grand scheme of things it actually matters if you're dealing in lolcats or create real value. It wouldn't scale otherwise.