Eyeball all the red in the Result column on this page. It's an unscientific method for sure but it would give me pause as a potential revolutionary. Of course the ccp arguably arose as a peasant revolt so there's that

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_peasant_revolts

Generally, it takes falling state and power vacuum. If you are solidly in control, you can repress people as much as you like.

When your bureaucracy does not work anymore and you cant pay the army is when it gets bad.

It probably depends roughly on the ruthlessness of the oppressor, the terms of surrender, and whether the populace is armed.

The Chinese have rebelled against their government waaaaay more times than Americans over basically any timeframe.

Mao managed to do it twice, including launching a revolution while actually in the government but sidelined.

Another fun fact, the US army has more recent experience helping put down a Chinese rebellion (boxer rebellion, 1900) than an American one.

While keeping the population well-fed, secure and with wages growing at 5% a year? Not possible.

The masses will beg for more oppression if you can keep that up.