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> If China is 15-20 years behind currently, I doubt they will ever be at parity.

Yes, no lesson from world history is more obvious and robust than "once in the lead, always in the lead".

Like all the historic civilizations that peaked and fell apart ?

The comment you replied to was sarcastic.

I thought it might be since it's so obvious but discussing a similar topic with coworkers a few days back had a similar situation where someone just frames the argument in a time window that explains their narrative - I wouldn't be surprised if someone argued this because of the US economic dominance post WW2

my reading of the OP is that was exactly the point

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