> That 99-97% of people don't really control their public identity; have you ever seen someone trying to shake a nickname they don't particularly like?
Yes? "Hey, I don't really like being called that." "Oh shit, sorry, didn't know."
> That 99-97% of people don't really control their public identity
What? Sure they do. They were clothing that puts them in a particular group. (Or do you feel you'd have a hard time identifying punks or businessmen?) Or they'll wear religious symbols. Or speak with an accent. Or carry a firearm. Or any number of other external identity markers beyond gender.
> It is complicated and context specific
It really, really isn't. If you are unsure, ask someone their pronouns. If you make a mistake, quickly apologize and move on. Literally end of story.