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Comment by ntrz | Hacker News Reader

That sort of observation is really tough to untangle from potential confounding variables though. Seems to me that the causation could go in the other direction just as easily - maybe people who generally have an optimistic outlook on things are more likely to overlook their own flaws and rate their abilities more highly, and vice-versa for depressive types?

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This is a known phenomenon among psychologists. People who are more realistic tend to be more likely to be clinically depressed.

Below is a link to a really really brief podcast that talks about the phenomenon. It's very interesting.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/segments/91618...

Exactly.

And there are healthy and unhealthy types of “false confidence.”

There’s the confidence to take on and commit to (reasonable) challenges with the self-belief you’ll be able to conquer them, even if you have no relevant experience. Then there’s the odious, narcissistic type which functions purely on its own desires, rather than reality.

You're talking about important, related ideas. Confidence is just the expectation of positive outcomes. "Self-belief" or more commonly self-esteem is just about one's own valuation of themselves. Both are related, and both positively correlated to happiness. Finally, "narcissistic confidence" is just arrogance. Also related, and you're right, it is a type of confidence.

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