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Comment by hn_throwaway_99 | Hacker News Reader

I'm going to push back against this "let's blame the evil media for everything" view. The treasury yield curve inversion is one of the best indicators we have of an oncoming recession, even if it's not 100% accurate. To not report on that very important signal would have been negligent.

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It definitely makes sense to report on the yield curve inversion; that certainly could be a possible indicator of a future recession. imo, It has really been taken to another level though with doomsday articles all over the place.

Most recessions are preceded by yield inversion, but a yield inversion may or may not lead to a recession. That’s where are the misleading information is coming from.

Edit: Idk why the downvotes. Yield inversions occur much more often than recessions therefore by necessity some yield inversions are preceded by another yield inversion instead of a recession.

"All recessions have been preceded by an inversion of the 2-10 year, but not all inversions of the 2-10 year have preceded a recession" is the phrasiology you're looking for.

“not all inversions of the 2-10 year have preceded a recession”

Since recessions are cyclical all inversions eventually lead to a recession. There haven’t been enough cycles to draw any sort of meaningful conclusions based on temporal proximity of the inversions to the recessions.

you seem to be contradicting yourself

> a yield inversion may or may not lead to a recession

> all inversions eventually lead to a recession

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