The recession talk was mostly media-driven based on a few cherry-picked data points. Sure, they may be right...but they may be wrong. For whatever reason, every media outlet has been running with this lately.
Edit: Idk why the downvotes. Yield inversions occur much more often than recessions therefore by necessity some yield inversions are preceded by another yield inversion instead of a recession.
Since recessions are cyclical all inversions eventually lead to a recession. There haven’t been enough cycles to draw any sort of meaningful conclusions based on temporal proximity of the inversions to the recessions.
> a yield inversion may or may not lead to a recession
> all inversions eventually lead to a recession