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I agree, this math is terrible. Just. Terrible.

Please no one believe this post, it uses dubious statistics.

it depends on your assumptions. i updated some of the numbers, but if you have suggestions definitely feel free to add a comment.

Sorry to be so harsh, but this analysis is really lacking.

If you want to learn more about how to hedge bets, read about things like moment theory or the Kelly criterion.

Also, taking a measure like variance would be much more meaningful than just the spread of the payoff.