How do you arrive at that number?
I've seen comparisons to firms like IWR / Regus that imply a much lower number would be appropriate, even if WeWork was as profitable as those firms (which it isn't even remotely... it loses money hand over fist).
I still contend that most of the value of Uber is tied up in their brand, and I think the same is true of We. I’m not sure either of their operations are all that valuable.
Who would buy a $10B brand? Much less a $30B one or whatever? The answer is almost exclusively "companies that already have a better brand than you do." Like, Apple could buy Uber, and then do its own ride-sharing service, and brand that ride-sharing service Uber... but they don't need to. They're Apple.
Any potential ride-sharing service that would like to build its own operations and the bootstrap itself to wider name recognition by buying Uber's brand won't be paying tens of billions of dollars.
So what's left? We and Uber need to reform their own operations to make money, which is the exact problem that nobody thinks they can do. What does their supposedly powerful brand get them?
Phillip Morris (a cigarette company) paid over $13BN for Kraft Foods, the vast majority of which was simply for the "Kraft" brand. And this was a long time ago.
Brands have enormous value.
Not really for that, no. In GAAP accounting "goodwill" is the generic term for "extraneous stuff that we can't quantify" i.e. the brand - the vast majority of the purchase price for Kraft was labled "goodwill" in the public accounting statements Phillip Morris issued.
There is a pretty good writeup on this in Naiomi Klein's book "No Logo"
The amazing thing about WeWork is that the offices are fun. The one I know in SF is an OK place to hang out in the evening.
So I disagree it's just a brand. WeWork's product is better.
Maybe other temporary office companies will figure out how to make their offices fun, but I sort of doubt it. Companies rarely learn how to be more fun if they didn't start off that way. If WeWork is the only fun office space, they'll be hugely profitable someday.
Well...they're (in my experience using them in the SE US) generic, quiet, generally well run. So, about as soulless as any office. Which was pretty much what I want.
WeWork's product is better.
Excepting Regus being profitable, having a better financial structure and management that's not a liability. But I understand that's not the only measure of 'better'.
The one I know in SF is an OK place to hang out in the evening.
I can't imagine anything I'd less like to do after work than hanging out drinking beer with a couple of dudebros with nowhere else to go after work than...work.
If WeWork is the only fun office space, they'll be hugely profitable someday.
I'm certain there's a market for work-space-as-life-substitute, but my own equally unsubstantiated feeling is that when people look for "workplace" they have one thing in mind, and when they think "fun", they're looking for something very, very different. At least for me, I don't want to try and work someplace where other people think it's for fun; fun is distracting.
I also think this is cool.
People in these places (not necessarily only WeWork) seem to be often interested in finding true purpose through work. It is a nice idea. Work, like sleep, is a large part of our life. Might as well be fulfilling in itself not by side effect.
- I guess I'm from a previous batch of adults. The idea that we all have a "go home at 5" mentality is a fallacy. I don't check out promptly at 5 (or any other time) every day. None of my employees do. Very few people I know do (and the ones that do aren't in technology). Maybe there's that impression because we've got enough experience to have realized that "you are your work" is not the better alternative it's sometimes presented to be.
- Conversely, I think the issue with "the last batch of adults" is that they have been feed the idea of "don't go home at 5" as an ideal, even a requirement, and saying "I have a life outside of work that I want to maintain" is what people who don't have what it takes to succeed say. Sure...there's Jack Ma, but Jeff Bezos has breakfast with his kids every day and Larry Ellison still ditches Oracle to go sailing.
- Work, like sleep, is a large part of our life. Might as well be fulfilling in itself not by side effect. Work can (and should be) fulfilling. Work does not have to be the totality of fulfillment in life. If it is for you, mazel tov; but it's not a moral failing to say "nope".
I think there's a space in the market for a Regus-like company where the offices are 'Affordable Luxury' like Google offices, rather than 'Standard' which Regus provides.
You know, free food and soft drinks, ergonomic chairs, things like that.
The fact WeWork aren't making a profit, there are major governance problems, they have bad share structure, arbitrating long-term and short-term space leases has substantial downside potential, and the fact they're over-valued, mean I won't be investing of course.
I've worked in a few WeWorks in NYC and I can emphatically say that is not the case in any of them. I don't doubt what you're saying, but that you're overestimating WeWork's product consistency. Most of my WeWork experiences have been more or less as soulless as a Regus office, only with "Hustle Hard" and "Always crunching" LED signs on the walls (I don't think those are the actual phrases but the real ones are so vacuous that I can't even remember them). On the plus side, their free coffee is excellent.
(even all this aside, if your office space is so fun that people don't want to leave it then I'm afraid your employees probably aren't all that productive. It is not a good thing to optimize for and if WeWork did they'd be turning off potential customers that live outside the SV bubble)
This sounds like my worse nightmare. Fake “fun” at work. I don’t go to work to have fun. I go to work to get a paycheck.
And for startups inducing “fun” is just another way to get young gullible employees to work crazy hours for less than the market rate and the promise of equity that statistically won’t be worth anything.
Well said. I can understand "fun after work" (which I don't want as I prefer to go home). But what this all rant about "fun at work" ? all valley cult. Remember 'enjoying work', 'good work environment' are completely different than 'fun at work'.
Leaving work at 5 pm is the goal. Clock out. Go. Be free.
If I want a social club, it will be a separate organization. People staying at the office after hours is indicative of a toxic work culture (unless those folks always come in just as late on the other end of the workday). An effort to design a workplace as having the appearance of fun strikes me as disingenuous, at best, and at worst is a signal that the company is, as David Brent put it, "'aving a larf", at the expense of the investors.
Do not make your offices fun. Levity and gravitas can co-exist, but at work, the latter should have the greater weight.
> everyone will want to go home at 5 pm
.
> WeWork is that the offices are fun.
> is an OK place to hang out in the evening.
That is because outside of SV, work is where you work, not "hang out in the evening". And that is a good thing. Work-life balance is important for long term health
Professionalism and separation are important to a work environment. It creates balance and a better culture with more productivity and satisfaction for everyone involved, especially those with families and other commitments that take up their evenings.
An office that's also a personal hangout is blurring the lines and always leads to problems.
You say that like it is a bad thing.
Also, it's not like a soulless or poorly configured office has negative effects only after 5pm. I know someone who's in a WeWork office temporarily - they love it, because the old space was poorly configured and amplified stress. Go figure, they've also mentioned they feel more productive and are getting more done.
But they're not they're any longer than they were before.
This is so SV. In the real world CEOs aren’t so into paying a premium so that their employees can chug “free” brewskis at work. Going home at 5 and coming in at 9 is the norm.
But I would settle for wifi that always works (been working on this in our own little corner of WeWork for a couple of weeks) and coffee that was ready before 9. It would be great if we could just scan our badge at the printer.
I feel like they provide insufficient attention to the basics and really focus on what they think provides differentiation. Maybe in a year I will think differently but if I had to pick a different office space today I don't think I would be any more likely to rent a WeWork given their brand.
The competitive moat of being fun is built on huge subsidies of cheap capital being injected into the company during funding. It's a great venue because the costs are being subsidized by Softbank. Absent that subsidy they would be losing even more money than they already have and would either have to raise costs or lower quality.
The moment HN hears about people staying past 5, everyone is up in arms, but... what if I'm staying past 5 so I can leave earlier the next day? Or past 5 for a week to get something done on time, and then taking off early for the next week when there's less to do? Personally, I'd prefer to do that in a nice office. It works for me, and for the company!
Even just in general. The effects of an office are far more than just 'do people stay past 5'. Even within a strict 9-5 work period, there is a huge amount of variance. If the office is depressing and soulless, it will have knock on effects on productivity and employee happiness. Again, good for the employees and the company.
But no, according to these comments an office people stay at longer is always evil.
You're projecting here. No-one is suggesting that being in the office at 5:01pm is a capital offence, but that workplaces with a consistent expectancy that you stay late (something many of us have an experience of) are a bad thing.
WeWork is a bubble about to burst. Uber is still unknown. The value of both brands is complete speculation and highly inflated by hopes and dreams.
What good is a brand if it's losing money?
That may take a while, though. As an example, check what the “Commodore” brand went through.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodore_International#Demise:
”Commodore declared bankruptcy on April 29, 1994, and ceased to exist”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodore_International#Post-C.... :
“In late 2004, Tulip sold the Commodore trademarks to Yeahronimo Media Ventures for €22 million”
That’s 10 years after they went bankrupt, and the story didn’t even end there.
Can you share a link/case study?
Kind of makes sense, but curious of how you developed your certainty. thnx
A brand is only so useful if it's attached to a money fire.