Everything has a cost. TDD (and Refactoring) increases the cost of implementation (linearly), but they greatly reduce the cost of change. Without TDD (and refactoring) the cost of change might become exponential and impossible to catch up to.
Your previous-to-last sentence applies equally to a software project with or without tests.
You don't even know the "change", you just assume that it will be a change that takes zero effort to implement, to satisfy your argument.