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botwriter

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Please don't post partisan flamebait to HN.

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Is the US economy so fragile that it can be thought-crimed into a recession?

This fear has nothing to do with any politician or political party and everything to do with the trauma from ‘08

> Is the US economy so fragile that it can be thought-crimed into a recession?

I think those in Behavioral Finance would argue yes, at least to a certain extent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/shiller-self-fulfilling-prop...

There are some people with trauma from 2000/2001.

All economies are subject to this because markets are based on trust and faith. If enough doubt is generated then the markets will reflect that in a downturn.

Isn't there a pretty big gulf between losing faith in a market and thinking there's a recession around the corner? A breakdown in trust in a market would more closely resemble an economic collapse rather than a a few quarters of contraction, wouldn't it?

I think you're underestimating the amount of randomness at play in complex interconnected systems like markets.

Forget the media, ask the former Federal Reserve president who literally wrote that "if the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020."

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-27/the-fe...

A recession will eventually happen, it happens about every 10 years. The mainstream media isn't talking about it to get rid of Trump.

EDIT: not sure why I'm being downvoted, but I'm guessing it's because I messed up the average length of the cycle. I guess it's probably closer to 5 years: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/071315/what-average...

>The mainstream media isn't talking about it to get rid of Trump.

That has became a bit of a meme ever since Bill Maher pointed out recession would both prevent Trump's reelection and also judged it as preferable over Trump.

"Well, you should wish for a recession,” Maher said, interrupting Nichols. “'Cause that will definitely get him [Trump] unelected." [1]

He followed it up with more of the same in a later episode [2].

[1] https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/hbos-maher-prefers-r...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joxYLYD5eoQ

You can find other political pundits that'll say that a recession would help Trump get elected, and I personally view that as the case.

Citation? Can you find the analysis that a recession would help Trump get re-elected?

Because I have the opposite as historical fact. That in the 1900s the only incumbent presidents to have lost re-election were those that campaigned during a recession (two irrc, maybe three).

Regardless of one's opinion on Trump, the media basically switched from Russian conspiracy theories to recession paranoia in the span of about a week. That week being the time of Mueller's presentation to congress.

C'mon now, there's also the "this week in dumb decisions" section. We're still riding the wave from Sharpie-gate.

I couldn't bring myself to even click on those. The media has cried wolf for so long with Trump, if I see a headline saying "Trump to start WW3", I'm just going to think, boy, the NY Times just keeps hitting new lows and not even click it.

Your example of the "media crying wolf" on Trump has left members of his inner circle in jail for lying about their connections to Russia. Hardly "crying wolf".

You didn't see that the man literally drew an extra, obviously out of place circle on the official hurricane projection map to make his previous erroneous tweet seem correct? You're missing out. While the error itself is unlikely to start WW3 or tank the stock market, it certainly does cause one to ask questions.

The Trump admin has been doing that stuff from day one with the "alternative facts" thing. I can't keep up with every unpresidential move these guys make. On the plus side, I did just see Trump just fired Bolton which makes war feel a bit less likely.

He'll just nominate Elliot Abrams to replace him.

Remembering the 1992 election, the press kept hammering "recession recession recession" despite the recession itself being over for about a year. Job numbers had been growing for months, but still it was "recession recession recession" over and over again in the press right up through the election, but not after. The New York Times was talking about the "Clinton Recovery" months before Clinton was even in the White House. The mainstream media is more than willing to exaggerate, even beyond the point of deception, in order to elect the candidates they are campaigning for.

Why was the mainstream media campaigning for Clinton?

He was the Democrat and once the pile on started, it never let up.

So you are saying the media campaigns for democrats? Doesn't seem likely to me.

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