> I believe inflation is very likely to explode in the next few years
Why?
Why?
1. Money is essentially free at current interest rates and I don't see a sign of that reversing course.
2. Large firms are hording cash and have more than they know what to do with. They are at the point where they are buying their own stock because that is the most productive thing they can do with that money.
3. The democratic party is running on minimum wage increases. While it is debatable if that will have a huge impact it certainly isn't a deflationary measure.
4. Democrats are also running on the green new deal, universal income and medicare for all that I predict will not actually result in higher taxes for the wealthy in any meaningful way but instead the printing of money in order to fund those programs as that is what seems to happen every time. Even if taxes were implemented as discussed, moving money from investment vehicles (where the wealthy have it) to consumers will still probably cause inflation in terms of housing and consumer goods.
5. China is sitting on about 3 trillion dollars that is currently effectively out of the money supply and they will likely deploy that as a weapon in the trade war.
2&3. Democrats "running on" some policy does not at all mean it will happen. In the current political climate, it's quite likely their holding a position means it won't happen.
4. Large firms have already been using record low interest rates to finance stock buybacks. This has been going on for years. The last three or four years of stock price growth has been fueled by financed buybacks, with every year breaking the previous year's record. At some point will need to stop.
As an aside, these buybacks are likely going to be the cause of our next stock market calamity.
5. This is sort of legit fear, but 3 trillion dollar is not really enough to make a market-wide impact and selling their bonds would just push interest rates lower, serving to help the US achieve their current monetary policy. They could use this money to selectively certain industries though.
And its not just housing in downtown San Francisco, even housing in middle america podunk nowhere has soared
Just look at the M2 monetary velocity[1]. It fell off a cliff in 1997 and never really recovered. It's now at an all-time low. For all intents and purposes we're operating on a light version of MMT.