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Comment by cryptoz | Hacker News Reader

> I'm guessing most people will keep at least one traditional desktop/laptop at home for decades to come.

I think you're being very shortsighted. "Most people" haven't even had a laptop for a single decade yet. Most people have had one for 1-10 years I'd say. Also, "most people" haven't had desktops for more than a decade and a half.

What on Earth makes you think these form factors / devices will still exist in most people's homes for decades?! To me, "decades" implies at least 20 years....

So do you think, in year 2031, we'll still use desktop computers? That's crazy. No, we will have moved on.

Keyboards will be out-phased for most users by 2031. I image maybe devs will still use them, and they'll be common in specialty scenarios, but they won't be for "most users".

> they'll always be on your desk at work

Also shortsighted. Workstations will evolve too, even if this is slower.

View on HN

I'll bet you $1000 that most people will still regularly use keyboards in 2031. Isn't there a website somewhere where we can do this?

http://www.longbets.org/

Also, most people don't use keyboards now, unless you count cellphone keypads or restrict "people" to mean "people with income above $1000 per year" or something like that.

Haha okay, I will probably take that bet! But we need to decide on more specific definitions, as hinted by pingswept. What defines a keyboard, and what defines "most people"?

Does "keyboard" include both physical and virtual keyboards? Most people on planet Earth, or most people in the USA? Or by income?

If we can settle these specifics, I think we should indeed register at longbets.

Maybe we should just do a HN Poll. Note: I'm also betting on the fact that I'll have an extra $1000 by 2031. :)

HN Poll: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2076992

We'll probably still be using some sort of device that involves tapping keys with our fingers. But I'd be very surprised if that device is anything like current keyboards.

(And then there's the small chance that brain-computer interfaces will allow us to type with our minds, but I'm not betting on that.)

Worth considering that QWERTY keyboards have been the method-of-choice for text-entry for over 100 years. I'm not saying it will last forever, necessarily, but it's a very efficient technique. Call me old-fashioned, but I don't see it being supplanted by voice-transcription or gestures or whatever for a very long time.

Agreed. I'm predicting more along the lines of really good on-screen keyboards, or ThinkGeek's laser keyboard (http://www.thinkgeek.com/computing/keyboards-mice/8193/), or something entirely new but still in that vein. In other words, keeping what works but evolving past the big physical slab of plastic.

> Call me old-fashioned, but I don't see it being supplanted by voice-transcription or gestures or whatever for a very long time.

Well, we can type way faster than we can talk, so even if voice transcription were perfected, it would still be impractical.

If you said most engineers I would agree with you. If you said most secretaries, I might still agree with you. But most people won't. (An awful lot of construction workers and truck drivers don't regularly use keyboards, even today.)

Don't confuse your workflow with the rest of the world's.

Don't forget - most people in any sort of school - something every one in every generation has to do.

I bet truck drivers do, especially drivers with terminals in their trucks.

Intrade: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrade

Intrade doesn't accept arbitrary contracts, wouldn't accept this one as currently too ill-defined and too long-term, and depending on how their fees work may make a 20-year bet way too expensive.

Maybe http://inklingmarkets.com/

The typewriter was commercialized around 1870. What makes you think keyboards will go away, and which market do you have in mind when you say "most users?"

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