I think you're being very shortsighted. "Most people" haven't even had a laptop for a single decade yet. Most people have had one for 1-10 years I'd say. Also, "most people" haven't had desktops for more than a decade and a half.
What on Earth makes you think these form factors / devices will still exist in most people's homes for decades?! To me, "decades" implies at least 20 years....
So do you think, in year 2031, we'll still use desktop computers? That's crazy. No, we will have moved on.
Keyboards will be out-phased for most users by 2031. I image maybe devs will still use them, and they'll be common in specialty scenarios, but they won't be for "most users".
> they'll always be on your desk at work
Also shortsighted. Workstations will evolve too, even if this is slower.
Also, most people don't use keyboards now, unless you count cellphone keypads or restrict "people" to mean "people with income above $1000 per year" or something like that.
Does "keyboard" include both physical and virtual keyboards? Most people on planet Earth, or most people in the USA? Or by income?
If we can settle these specifics, I think we should indeed register at longbets.
(And then there's the small chance that brain-computer interfaces will allow us to type with our minds, but I'm not betting on that.)
> Call me old-fashioned, but I don't see it being supplanted by voice-transcription or gestures or whatever for a very long time.
Well, we can type way faster than we can talk, so even if voice transcription were perfected, it would still be impractical.
Don't confuse your workflow with the rest of the world's.
FWIW, going along with the misunderstanding in this thread, I agree with you. I have a hard time seeing any creative work done in a non-desktop environment (maybe work that involves drawing/writing can be done on a tablet/drawing surface, but that's about it).