When the books are written 100 years from now, they will explain this period as a hyperinflation that our HBS-trained leaders in government and finance managed to trap mostly in financial assets, all the while counter-intuitively justifying their money-creation activities based on a theoretical potential to leak gradually out to the broader economy. Hyperinflation here to maybe generate useful inflation there, but really useful primarily in creating robber-barrons and oligarchs, who perpetuate the system through 'soft bribery' and 'reputation laundering' described in the article.
This article and the speeches etc. discussed in it should be a clarion call for folks to accelerate imagining what will come next, which may well go beyond increasingly cosmopolitan admissions and instruction at HBS.
it a reinforcing self-cycle. Rich people used to rule the world. Then we created democracy. Now rich people manipulate democracy from the inside. They define what is acceptable and what is not by owning prestigious schools, selectively funding research, and selectively funding ventures that re-inforce this self-importance.
You need money to make money. Being smart has nothing todo with it. An idiot with a billion dollars is going to make more money in shorter time then the most acedemic investor with $1 to their name.
No, they won't, because it wasn't.
If high finance generated a ROI of 9% x 2 on average since 1982, through asset price gains magnified by leverage ... that would be 64% every 3 years, on average for almost 40 years. That's a remarkable inflationary event, however you choose to define 'hyperinflation.'
> In economics, hyperinflation is very high and typically accelerating inflation.
> It quickly erodes the real value of the local currency, as the prices of all goods increase.
This is in process. You seem to think there's a specific periodic minimum that is absolute. If the period is decades, it looks the same.
> This causes people to minimize their holdings in that currency as they usually switch to more stable foreign currencies, often the US Dollar.[1] Prices typically remain stable in terms of other relatively stable currencies.
Given this has affected every currency (not counting some closed off systems like NK) the flight currency is property/land/gold/etc
Right. And Jesus is coming back any day now.
Part of the definition of hyperinflation is that it happens fast. Price increases that take place over decades is not hyperinflation, it's just regular old inflation.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.h...
Between 1980 and 2000, California median home prices increased at a rate of less than 1% a year [1]. Over that same period many states saw price drops in real estate.
In Southern California between 2000 and today, house prices increased at an average of about 5% a year [2].
Even health care is only going up at about 5% a year on average. Tuition is going up at about the same rate.
None of this is even remotely in the same ballpark as hyperinflation.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/how-much-housing-prices-have...
[2] https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-southern-california-h...
[3] https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/avg-annual-growth-...
The problem with the glut of cheap credit is that it created the means to leverage capital on a scale that essentially embed rent seekers into every facet of life to the detriment of those without.
Those already with property were able to become landlords on a massive scale because credit was cheap, pushing up demand and pricing out those seeking their first home.
Fund managers were able to borrow massive amounts to buy into every business possible to the detriment of other business stakeholders and often the business itself. The economy as a whole suffered as generating quarterly returns and accumulating wealth trumped business growth and production. Because this occurred on a global level the social compact was broken.
I can only see two ways out of this:
A tax on wealth (70%+) might be the means to creating a "spend it or lose it" attitude and force the promised "trickle down" promised when the laws were changed to allow this aberration.
Or we need a multi-trillion dollar debt forgiveness program to reset the economy back to a place people are not so burdened by debt (from putting a roof over their heads, getting an education or requiring healthcare) that they can't afford anything.
The idea is to match the money supply to the real wealth in the economy. I don't disagree with your assertion that we are seeing a decoupling of money from real wealth, but the gold standard is no guarantee against inflation - or worse, deflation.
Perhaps fiat isn’t your ideal, but it’s almost certainly better than pegging to a rare earth metal.
We are very comfortable as technologists and other high-paying (read: inflationary) professionals, but there is a large class of people who are getting thoroughly shafted by these monetary policies and they are your Uber drivers, the people who work at the coffee store, the factory workers in the midwest, and the homeless. The exponential rise in rents in cities are not a natural consequence of the capitalist marketplace, rather its a consequence of loose monetary policy whereby money has entered real estate markets to gain returns by exploiting ridiculous rents.
https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
Again, no coincidence that productivity and wage increases started to diverge significantly after the gold standard was abandoned.
Our modern loose monetary policy and inflation targeting is probably the greatest regressionary redistributional scheme in the history of mankind, and will go down in history as such.
The deeper problem is the opportunity cost - the small businesses that were never started, and the inventions, innovations, and other developments that never happened because financialised markets were more interested in speculation, wealth capture, scamming, and gambling than in fringe high-risk speculative R&D.
In fact the financialisation and corporatisation of the research that does happen has distorted the research process and made it far less effective. Without it we might have had game-changing advances in fundamental physics, AI, medicine, aerospace, robotics, bioengineering, and even arts and culture that were decades ahead of where we are now.
My younger cousins were a lot more well off than my side of the family, went to private or high competitive schools from kindergarten on, and are super smart.
I used to hang out with them and their friends from time to time, and it struck me how uniform their aspirations all were. Investment Banking, Consulting or medicine. Maybe a few wanted to be lawyers.
It struck me then and now as an incredible waste of talent.