the disappearance of readily available plastic bags (in the trash, floating around, etc) certainly would make way more sense as something that could suddenly have a huge impact than other theories which are stabbing in the dark at higher level variables that have trended slowly over time like shelter access or density of public restrooms. it would also explain why this problem is uniquely SF -- given the social signaling that is associated with a store being seen as environmentally conscious (by abandoning plastic bags) compared to other cities, it wouldn't surprise me if the rate and degree of abandonment of plastic bags outpaced other California cities.
this certainly seems like the kind of thing that will bubble up to economics textbooks if true, a classic case of unintended consequences by tweaking incentives and regulations. i hope it gets more attention.
"Plastic-bag ban led to hep A health crisis?"
https://www.sandiegoreader.com/news/2017/sep/08/stringers-pl...
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/04/09/711181385/are-...
It's a ban of free or single-use plastic bags from supermarkets; bags must be reusable (with specified strength standards for plastic bags), and there is a minimum charge.