Those are some great points you have raised, I just want to add:

When actors are aware of the risks and exposures, they can sometimes inadvertently move the goal post further into the future due to their actions. In this case, the movements made by Central Banks and others may have led to the longest continuous economic growth in US history.

I would argue that the government's decision to delay the $150b tarifs was in part to delay the upcoming recession to help support retail & manufacturing numbers in the end of year sales.

I agree there is an inevitable recession, it is now a matter of how low it will get, how quick it can bounce back, its ramifications to the world, how it may impact your life and the strategy you intend to have to hedge the risks.