I very much agree that most reportings and conversations lack proper context, especially non-Chinese ones (although I refrain from describing them as _stupid_), but can’t help but wondering whether your concluion is also missing some other context.

Reports conflict on how China is faring on the trade disputes, but Hong Kong, being the only place not affected in these trade conflicts, may be too valuable to give up as a worst-case plan, even if it might not be vital in numbers. Even given the same information, a spectator’s mindset can be drastically different than a player’s, since a spectator has nothing to loose, but a player does.

The current Hong Kong incident is really, really complicated not only because of China itself, but also it happens at a very perculiar time. The fact that China chose this particluar time to assert control on Hong Kong (proposing the Fugitive Offenders Bill and providing the sparking point) is also under-discussed, and no-one AFAIK has a good explaination–it can’t be simply stupity, for sure? I certainly would not jump into the conclusion that China has “no incentive, period” to use military force without first understanding all those nuances and much more.