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Could you imagine how bad it would be if Congress got excited about the potential for internet crime in 1985, tried to guess the form of the problems that would arise, and then wrote laws banning and permitting things that they thought would lead to trouble? There is no way somebody back then could predict which situations would lead to trouble decades later.

You mean like everyone who's talking about AI policy right now?

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There have been people who have predicted exactly the direction we are headed like Richard Stallman.

I think though that the number of people with that kind of vision and foresight are few.

> I think though that the number of people with that kind of vision and foresight are few.

It also often comes from domain experts, and almost never from politicians.

It might be interesting to see what RMS is predicting right now.

I have a friend who participates in superforecasting. I should pay more attention.

It's just as ridiculous to do so in AI.

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