but they were only valuable to the UK because it was their gateway to China. it has always been about the relationship to China
In other words, entire countries can be propped up for decades not on their worth as an ally or vassal, but rather on their worth as a hindrance to your enemies.
I would expect, if HK found a new patron, it'd be for that reason.
Someone earlier on HN made a comment that the HK-Macau-Zhuhai bridge newly built was expressly designed to put Chinese tanks into HK in under 30m, which would easily stomp any resistance. That projection of power is also likely to deter any possible allies, as it's an indefensible position.
This article has a nice picture: https://www.vox.com/world/2018/10/22/18010254/chain-bridge-h...
I'd be interested to set what sort of damage they could do by turning off wechat.
Doesn’t mean, under the hypothetical where someone went to war with China and HK allied with them, that that larger nation wouldn’t extract protections for HK from China as a concession, win or lose. It’d be an obvious “price of entry” for HK to participate in any such war. (Heck, I bet with the way things are going, if said ally was trying to recruit Taiwan to stand in rebellion, I bet Taiwan would also demand protections for HK as a concession, at the same time it was demanding protections for itself.)
Of course, in the mean time, the population of the city would probably have to evacuate to allied territory and only re-occupy the city after the war, lest they become an easy hostage for their allies.