Of course, a key part of bluffing is getting the probabilities right. You can't always bluff and you can't never bluff, because that would make you too predictable. But our self-play and search algorithms are designed to get those probabilities right.
This makes no sense. If I am betting for thin value with a weak hand, then I make less money when my opponent folds. Does the bot not know whether it is bluffing or value betting?
Value betting and bluffing aren’t defined by the outcome of a hand — action yet to be completed. Poker is a game of hidden information so betting with “thin value” implies that your component of bluffing is larger. You want your opponent to fold more often than not when you have thin value because more often than not you’re actually beat.
QQ can get KK to fold based upon board texture, street, and prior action. But you don’t know the other person is holding KK when you’re betting for “thin value” on the river.
No, that is simply not true. If I am betting for value, then I want my opponent to call no matter how weak I am or how thin it is.
> But you don’t know the other person is holding KK when you’re betting for “thin value” on the river.
Then it's a value bet. As you said, it's not defined by the outcome.
The bot doesn’t “know” whether it’s value betting or bluffing—it’s not a relevant question. The relevant question is whether to bet, and what amount, in order to maximize value of the particular hand it has, with reference to the board and opponent actions taken.
(This, in addition to what the other comments have said about there being spots where a bet can get better hands to fold with some probability AND get worse hands to call with some probability - see the chapter "The grey area between value betting and bluffing" in Applications of No Limit Hold Em)
I was the one who introduced the term "value betting" to the conversation, applied specifically to weak hands.
This is psychology.
You only need to know the probability of the opponent folding so that you can deviate from the theoretical optimal strategy to win even more money if they are a biased player