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Comment by yogthos | Hacker News Reader

China is clearly a rising power in the world while US is on the way out. All the manufacturing is happening in China, their tech industry is growing rapidly, and their education system is much better. For the longest time US had the advantage of being able to attract top talent from around the world, but that's rapidly changing with the states becoming increasingly insular and jingoistic.

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China is still a bit of a bet. Is anyone sure their growth will be built on solid foundations ? If so then yeah, they'll probably be the next pole.

Although, in a way, I'm not sure poles will be a good description. Manufacturing will decrease in China, while other countries are trying to relocalize. It might be a flatter network of ~peers in the future.

>China is still a bit of a bet. Is anyone sure their growth will be built on solid foundations?

Is anyone sure the kind of foundations the west considers "solid" are the only solid ones?

The idea that corrupt dictatorships don't work out in the long run is not based on the average American's favorite flavor of ice cream, it's based on the vast majority of countries in history.

>The idea that corrupt dictatorships don't work out in the long run is not based on the average American's favorite flavor of ice cream, it's based on the vast majority of countries in history.

What "vast majority of countries"? There were empires that lasted millennia far more corrupt or dictatorship like than modern China.

And those "corrupt dictatorships" that didn't last were more like Latin America "Banana Republics" or African rogue warlord dictatorships in backwards places, than a huge sophisticated state with a top-tier economy, an ancient culture, and its own way of doing things for millennia...

Recent history. The idea was proven out by the Romans and Egyptians on 1-2 magnitude larger times scales than which western society has existed.

The average dictator was terrible for Rome, and the successful dictators achieved their success through the conquest of local countries. Rome's economy was basically an engine that ran on slaves and resources brought back from conquest. The majority of Rome's rulers weren't very good at conquest. It may be a little excessive to suggest that Xi will double the size of China through war in the next few decades.

That's basically what US is right now. The slaves have been replaced by third world countries that US exploits. There are endless wars that are driven by politics and the military/industrial complex. And the country is run by a corrupt oligarchy.

Good point

I think China has a pretty solid foundation in my opinion. While the socially authoritarian nature of the Chinese government is obviously abhorrent, the centralized planning approach has shown itself to be very effective when it comes to managing the economy and the industry. For example this [1] documentary on Shenzhen talks about how it grew from a fishing village into a major tech hub in a few decades. There are lots of other examples of China doing these kinds large scale modernization and industrialization projects. China has clearly demonstrated its ability to execute long term plans over the past few decades.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGJ5cZnoodY

Also, a lot of it depends on how much of it's culture China is able to export. I could see certain places accept the Chinese language, ideologies, arts etc. in exchange for greater trade/economic benefits. How openly and rapidly the world accepts/imports Chinese culture(and not just it's money) will determine if it has a legitimate hegemonic future.

China's #1 position will likely prove to be short-lived because of demographic decline caused by the one-child policy. Whether India or the US will succeed it is anyone's guess (mine is the US, India has a pattern of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory).

If this is true, this is very bad news. You can criticize the government in America; you take quite a risk by doing so in china (particularly depending on in which you are). This extends to most other freedoms of religion, association, etc.

I have no doubt that as usual, some one will come running to point out something America did wrong. I claim not that she is perfect, but that she is better than china. This is obviously true.

There are also cultural issues: china is based on the Confucian philosophy that power flows from the top down; from the father to the son. Western philosophy is based on the idea that the individual is sovereign over himself, and delegates power up into local->state->federal gov'ts. One is inherently equipped to protect freedom and foster innovation; the other is not.

The Chinese education system is certainly not MUCH better than the one in the US. It is in fact terrible.

China is just enormous. Over 1500 million people(officially 1200 million), 4x, 5x times more than the US.

Lots of Chinese people are just very intelligent, just simple math tells you there is 4x 5x more intelligent people in China than in the US.

The math does not work because most brilliant people in China go to the States, as their quality of life increases. But they love their country.

The world is changing because most of the world population lives in Asia, just taking into account Indonesia and India.

What the US are doing is just reacting to this fact, they just want to maintain their hegemonic power in the world, like any other empire that came before.

U.S. is not at all "on the way out", I don't know why people are saying this. Europe and China could both do well in many ways, but China, as "rising" as it may be, is still way lower than even Europe, never mind the U.S. And then there are all sorts of other places that are real wildcards but have a lot of hidden potential too, by and large they're just holding themselves back with terrible policies - nothing that can't be fixed with relative ease.

One of the things that brought home to me how far China has to go was an episode of The Grand Tour in which Jeremy Clarkson was driving along one of its countless new highways, only for a rain shower to render the road virtually undriveable because said road had apparently not been designed to shed water quickly enough.

But each time I've gone back to the US between 1993 and 2017 things have seemed just that bit worse, and the people just a little less positive about the future. It is sad.

outsider viewpoint, I heard reports of:

    - political frailty
    - infrastructure frailty
    - defaulting cities
    - grad students debt

'on the way out' is hyperbole, but the days where USA were the world's beacon are gone[0]. Unless they prove me wrong.

[0] they used to be unquestionably the leader to run after in so many domains..

Lower in what dimension and why is it the one that matters more than the ones already discussed?

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