The biggest advantage to getting into an elite school is the networking. If your kid is making friends with the children of board members of Fortune 500 companies then they have a chance at the big leagues. Otherwise they're just clawing their way up to middle management like every other schmuck.

Of course even then it's a total crapshoot, but there's very little chance of that panning out in the state school.

How much does getting into the right college matter though? I'm not sure about the US system, but in Canada it doesn't feel like it matters all that much. Some schools are a little bit better than others, but it doesn't feel like a world of difference (at least when it comes to STEM). I've especially noticed this when interviewing candidates from various schools.

Even that is only important a little bit. Excelling at a mid-tier university is completely FINE. It's so much harder to get into an Ivy League school now than when I was applying in the 90s; I'm not pushing my child to the brink for a tiny blink of undergrad prestige.