Comment by pure_ambition | Hacker News Reader

Comment by pure_ambition | Hacker News Reader

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I think most people with an understanding of economics would agree that more supply is needed. The problem is, zoning laws are made by the cities themselves, which means they are ultimately made by the people who already live there. People who already live there don't want their neighborhoods bulldozed for luxury high rises, which is what happens when zoning is abolished.

Then, there is the problem of the suburbs. A lot of people suggest moving to the suburbs and embracing a longer commute as the solution. The problem is, suburbs also control their own zoning laws, just like cities, and surprise - they also don't want their neighborhoods bulldozed for luxury apartments.

So the problem is essentially a power issue - who holds the power? Without the political power to make zoning changes, little new housing will be built. I don't see a solution here. So it seems that the local people embrace rent control as the best possible solution among alternatives. Viewed from that perspective, it's not so bad after all. The city's residents will feel the impacts, and if it's not working out, they will eventually repeal the law. Big deal.

I wish someone with a deeper understanding would go to Japan and study how they got this so right. Their zoning laws don't separate uses, only nuisance levels, so you often see residential in commercial areas and small shops in residential neighborhoods. It's amazingly effective at reducing how far you need to go to get places, and gives the whole city a much more organic feel. Plus, there is actually housing if there's demand for it.

Is it just Japanese cultural collectivism that made this work? How did they make this happen when we failed so badly? I have no idea.

There's definitely a cultural element but it's also due to how buildings are used in japan. Black mold makes it where you really don't want to deal with a structure over 40 years old so there's always things being destroyed and new structures being built rather than old structures being renovated; neighborhoods are in a constant turnover and buildings are disposable. All of urban Tokyo was also destroyed during WWII and had to be rebuilt in a new way.

In the U.S. you might have some neighborhoods that have been largely the same for the past 50-100 years. Since there's no absolute need to replace housing stock unless disaster, people are much more emotionally invested in the existing layouts of their neighborhoods, and advocate against their own economic interests by voting down new developments or zoning changes.

I actually thought of both of these and discounted both. Here's why.

Post-WW2 buildings in Japan were crap so I can see why they'd replace those. But I think recent buildings are a lot more long-term. My sense is that they replaced because of the post-WW2 cheap building boom, not because of the climate/mold. It's no warmer or wetter than many places in America, and northern Japan is quite dry and chilly.

For the "never bombed America" argument, I'd just point to Europe, which was bombed. Or to new American cities built 1950 onwards, which suffer the same problems. I'd also point to Kyoto, which wasn't destroyed in WW2, but is still functional in terms of real estate AFAIK (though I'd love to hear otherwise).

It’s actually pretty simple: housing isn’t an investment vehicle like it is in many parts of the West. The social and historical reasons why this is so in Japan are complicated, but the overall circumstances are not.

You can either have affordable housing that’s not an appreciating asset or let finance/real estate Capital run roughshod over everything in speculative flurries, leading to the insane state of affairs in many western cities today. You can’t have both.

I read today that Fortress Investments purchased over 100,000 affordable units from the Japanese government for 60bn JPY in 2017 and plans to spend about as much on renovation. [1] Apparently firms like this usually expect an 18% return on these kinds of investments.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/fortress-becomes-japans-biggest...

Yes and if all of its housing tilts this way, Japan too will spiral into unaffordability. But most families still live in single family homes that depreciate in value over time.

you can have both as long as productivity is growing, increasing labor's bargaining power and wages

unfortunately productivity is pretty stagnant across developed economies, including japan

if capital and business owners have no need for new/enhanced labor as is the case in many developed economies where offshoring/new hire cycling is rampant, then a housing affordability crisis definitely builds up, unless:

(1) the municipal/federal government steps in to regulate rent as it has done in Berlin

(2) there is a good architectural/geological/tax incentive that prevents NIMBYISM

(3) cultural/work factors allow the younger gen to live at home/work remotely

Wait, housing is socialized in Japan? Or is there some kind of non-socialized-but-non-privatized ownership situation? Do you have any further reading on this?

This is spot-on. Completely agree. Tokyo is an incredibly comfortable, quiet city. Preparing for a three-week trip, I expected it to be like New York — crowded, expensive, uncomfortable — but it completely blew my mind. I had never thought that the constellation of density, quiet, reasonable rent, and a first-class city were collectively possible.

Japan overall or Tokio specifically? Because Tokio would be a bad example as it’s super dense and I think that is exactly what residents try to prevent

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