I think the Short Answer is that the solo renters are the sizzle and the Fortune 500 is the steak.
I think the Short Answer is that the solo renters are the sizzle and the Fortune 500 is the steak.
If the answer is "wework allows us to be elastic with real estate as our needs shift", then WeWork will be in for a lot of hurt at the next recession. If the answer is "we are using a lot more remote or geographically-diverse staffers, and WeWork allows us to have small office space available all over the world", they might do okay. The single-company WeWorks described in the article lean towards the former, though.
Think of it like having 3-year Reserved Instances in AWS instead buying your own hardware and running your own data center. Which would you choose today?
It's very rational -- if you are an "intrapreneur" and wanting to break out your team from the mothership, it's probably easier and faster to get your office space at a WeWork. Plus, you get a recruiting / lifestyle / hipness benefit from getting to be downtown with exposed brick, instead of out at the suburban office park with the sea of landscaped parking lots.
But my sense is that it's a high-beta customer base. When times are good and there's lots of corporate cash for high-urgency, high-concept stuff like innovation teams and new product skunkworks, a $25k/month WeWork bill is peanuts. When times get tight, that's going to dry up fast.
Similarly high beta on VC-backed startups. That cohort is pretty cyclical, though it won't disappear completely. I predict a similar % of Series Seed/A startups would still opt for a WeWork in a venture downturn as do today (but there will be many fewer of them).
Much lower beta on satellite offices and smaller professional services type groups -- they'll still show up to work, as it's a primary office for their primary business.
Wild card on the bootstrap / solo / freelancer stuff.
Also (IMO) sort of a wild card on the larger corporate buyouts of an entire floor or location. In crowded cities it really can be worthwhile to pay for the branded facilities management as the locations WeWork acquires are quite good.
However, and here's the big however. My understanding is that We's leases are LONG term and tend to have escalator clauses (they owe more rent to the landlord in the later years, faster than inflation). Which generally means their supply / cost structure is as good today as it's ever going to get. If the topline gets hit, which in a recession it surely will, the bottom line will take a double whammy as the escalators kick in.