My only expectations is being able to believe real people are actually clicking the ads.
Which I don't.
What is your website/landing page URL and what did your ad say?
And considering the pervasiveness of tracking, why isn't the fraud better tracked?
Because the people who are best-positioned to do something about click fraud also make heaps of money off of click fraud.
For example, browser extensions like AdNauseam that randomly "click" on ad links are maybe meant to be a middle finger aimed at the ad networks, but, realistically, if you, the person doing the advertising, are paying for clicks, then the main effect of such extensions is to transfer money from your pocket to the ad network's.
On the advertiser side, fraud has a small impact due to idiot brands bidding up prices and also another small impact due to the fact that you need to cull all the worst placements/domains when you first start using a network or launch a campaign.
On the publisher side, each fraud penny earned is a penny directly taken away from legitimate publishers.
Fraud is much more a problem for publishers than for advertisers.
>There's a lot of fraud
Makes no sense.
Everytime AdTech comes up on HN, there's inevitably people who defend advertising with "you're not doing it right". Sorry, but the industry is a cesspool.