> It is inconsistent with the personal experience of most developers.
I disagree. I've been programming for about 30 years now, and most reports I've received -- both from programmers and managers -- are that language doesn't matter; certainly not much. Carefully selected personal "feeling" report are worthless (especially in biased forums), as that would produce even more evidence that homeopathy is effective than that programming languages make a difference.
> Few would claim that C is just as productive and safe as some garbage collected language
I agree, but that's where the many caveats come in. First, my argument is more one of diminishing returns (following Brooks's theory). I.e., languages make an increasingly small difference. C may have been a big improvement over assemby, and Java may have been a smaller but still quite big improvement over C, but now differences are quite small.
Indeed, the effect of GC and memory safety vs C was one that was almost immediately detected by industry (once mature, performant, etc.) and triggered a huge shift. We do not see such shifts now. Companies move among mainstream languages, among non-mainstream languages, and between the two classes in a way that does not suggest a big effect at all.
> or that a SQL group by statement is not more productive to write than the equivalent procedural code.
That's a completely different matter. I don't think anyone believes that writing a 1MLOC program in SQL is easier than writing a similar one in Java or Python, even if the Python/Java one is 1MLOC, and the SQL one is 200KLOC. When the program is small, there can be large differences, but that's a completely different problem (and also explained by theory).
> The methods used to study the subject are completely unfit for purpose.
I disagree, but it doesn't matter. Big effects are easy to find and hard to hide. And in an environment with strong selective pressures, they're found even when no studies at all are conducted.
> It is inconsistent with the few results that seem at least somewhat well supported because they are simple enough to measure, such as the constant bug count per line of code.
It is not. First, the difference in LOC is not as big as PL fans claim (it can be big for small programs, not large ones). Second, you may want to review those results.