I think I'm going to inject a tracking pixel to see if you're hypothesis is correct. Just to measure the number of requests.
It would actually be really interesting to see.
Polar has about 15% FF usage right now that hit the site directly.
Also, my site is supported by donations, and when one of our articles gains traction on HN we get a substantial increase in one-time donors during that day. Other big sites like reddit barely bump the numbers at all, despite often bringing a much greater increase in total visitors.
One time we were front-paged on /r/TodayILearned, and GA showed a peak of 6,680 concurrent visitors. Hotchie motchie.
And how do you know those views weren't bots/crawlers? Pulling apart "real" traffic from fake seems impossible. :(