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Comment by macspoofing | Hacker News Reader

The only thing keeping Hong Kong's sovereignty (such as it is) is Taiwan. There is some understanding on the Chinese side that a full annexation of the territory would strengthen independence hardliners in Taiwan - which is the real prize because Taiwan is absolutely critical for Chinese national defense. If it wasn't for that, Hong Kong would have been wholly annexed by now.

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Taiwan is not critical for Chinese defense. Who wants to pick a fight with a giant well funded army?

> Who wants to pick a fight with a giant well funded army?

History is littered with modern examples.

The US Colonies (British Empire). Latin America (Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, British, French). The Viet Cong (US, France). Finland (Russia). Iraqi resistance groups (US). The Taliban, Mujahideen (US, Russia). North Korea (UN). Ukraine (Russia). Hezbollah (Israel). Yugoslavia (NATO). Emus (Australia).

Every giant well funded army has also lost at some point. For China, it's ideal to remove Taiwan as a staging ground that could be held by any opposition. Consider a scenario where it's NATO countries + Japan + South Korea + Taiwan, + Australia + New Zealand vs China in a massive conflict (or any similar variation). It would be far better to wholly control the island of Taiwan than not.

Is taking China worth losing LA? Or Seattle? They have nukes.

Just look at the map. If Taiwan were to become independent and an American ally, that would mean the entire Chinese pacific coast would be encircled by American allies - South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines.

The ROC and the PRC _are_ independent countries. They don't say they are, but clearly they are. The PRC already basically (that qualifier probably isn't necessary) is an ally of the United States.

I don't disagree with your point (Chinese fears of encirclement), but the way you present. It's already the case and China is trying to invade Taiwan to change it. It's all consistent with China's attempt to phrase Taiwan as being separatist as opposed to the truth which is that China is being militaristic and imperialistic. It's dangerous double-speak and needs to stop.

>The ROC and the PRC _are_ independent countries.

You know that's not true.

>They don't say they are, but clearly they are.

So why don't they say that?

>The PRC already basically (that qualifier probably isn't necessary) is an ally of the United States.

And what is the United States' position on the independence of Taiwan?

>It's dangerous double-speak and needs to stop.

Sometimes language can reflect reality, and the reality is that Taiwan is quasi-independent.

> You know that's not true.

The PRC and the ROC have separate economies, militaries, governments, currencies. They engage in interational trade separately, organize telecommunications separately, they issue their own passports and they are recognized separately. The land controlled by the PRC and the land controlled by the ROC have been stable for 70 years. Those two landmasses have been united under one government for about 4 years in the last 125. To say that they are not two separate countries is totally delusional.

> And what is the United States' position on the independence of Taiwan?

What does that matter? The facts on the ground are that they are separate countries. The US position that the PRC wasn't a country in the 50s and 60s didn't magically make it the case.

> Sometimes language can reflect reality, and the reality is that Taiwan is quasi-independent.

You clearly don't live in reality.

This is getting silly. You're being disingenuous and I don't know why. Everything you said is true, and yet you know that isn't the entire story. You know that Taiwan is special. It isn't like other sovereign states as it has no UN representation and is not recognized by the vast majority of states and it is claimed by PRC as its dependent. The political status of Taiwan is complicated (to put it mildly). The status quo is somewhat tolerated by all parties, but I wouldn't bet that you'll have another 70 years of it. As China grows into a superpower, I doubt Taiwan will be able to maintain whatever independence it has now - but we'll see.

Your line of argument also doesn't actually address the original point, which is that China tolerates the independence of Hong Kong because it has its sights set on Taiwan - which is the real prize. From that perspective, it doesn't matter how Taiwan sees itself.

What you say is irrelevant. The PRC may annex the ROC someday (militarily or by other means), but that wouldn't change the fact that between 1949 and until that happens that there were two separate countries. The UN doesn't make countries it's just a forum that some governments are invited to be a part of. The political status of the ROC is just as simple as that as the PRC. To say otherwise is what actually is disingenuous.

> Your line of argument also doesn't actually address the original point, which is that China tolerates the independence of Hong Kong because it has its sights set on Taiwan - which is the real prize.

Yes taking over the ROC is the real prize because right now it is _independent_ and the PRC wants that to change. The mental somersaults you do to avoid saying this obvious truth is mind boggling.

> From that perspective, it doesn't matter how Taiwan sees itself.

This is true! The ROC claims the territories of the mainland as well as Mongolia in its constitution. This is delusional. Similarly the PRC claims the mainland and the ROC's territories as its own. This is also delusional. It matters how neither side officially sees themselves. They _are_ two separate countries.

Why can't you just admit that the PRC has imperialistic ambitions and tries to make up justifications to make the PRC look like it is in the right? Why are you so hellbent to ignore reality?

Why is Taiwan absolutely critical to Chinese defense?

Taiwan is an unsinkable aircraft carrier. It provides a massive platform from which to attack the mainland. Maintaining control denies this advantage to any attackers.

There are so many unsinkable aircraft carriers around China. Taiwan is not the only one, and also Taiwan island is too far away from USA, the only possible opponent of China. So once the war is starting, China is very easy to occupy Taiwan before USA can provide the support.

Invading Taiwan would require huge amounts of troop and material. Those things have to been moved weeks if not months in advance and can be easily picked up by satellites. Add to that that you can't simply land your soldiers anywhere on the shore, there are only a few landing spots that can be used and which are of course heavily defended. Also, the two lands are close to each other so Taiwan can send missiles to the mainland and cause heavy damage to the cities on China's east coast. Finally the weather, which according to some people [0][1] offers only two short windows during which an invasion is likely to not fail.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Taiwan consists of about 70% of mountainous areas, i.e the perfect terrain for an organized resistance.

Invading Taiwan is but an easy task and it is believed to be an endeavor that would surpass the D-day.

[0] https://books.google.com.tw/books?id=mzwGDAAAQBAJ&pg=PT117&l... [1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...

Taiwan is actually very close to two very important US allies, the Philippines and Japan. It’s alot harder and more expensive to launch an attack from Luzon or Okinawa than it is to launch it from Taiwan.

It's a hell of a lot closer to China than to Philippines or Japan.

FWIIW it was historically used by forces which threatened Chinese sovereignty, including Japan. Since Chinese leadership actually reads history instead of making stuff up as they go along, as Westerners do, that's probably why it's such a sore spot for them.

I wouldn't count Philippines as US's alley now. And also, Taiwan Strait just 150KM wide, and how long between Luzon and Okinawa?

Chinese army practiced taking control of Taiwan for years. This will be their first move in any armed conflict.

Full control of the Taiwan strait. Break the first island chain. Direct access to the pacific ocean. Immediate access to deep waters, which they lack, and which is an advantage for submarines.

All you have to do is look at the map. If Taiwan becomes an independent state and an American ally, the Chinese Pacific coast would be encircled by South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Philippines - all American allies.

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