Good luck. China owns Hong Kong. Since the mainland gets to decide who runs in major elections, there is only an illusion of independence.
Not yet [1], not technically. Hong Kong, through the UK, has legal redress in international law which would at least make overt subjugation politically costly for Beijing.
The UK has gradually lost interest in ensuring that Hong Kong’s Basic Law is respected. For the UK, fighting for Hong Kong would jeopardize its relationship with the mainland, which is much more important in terms of business and trade.
Plus, mainland China has become more assertive and its leadership claims that China is rising back up again after the colonial era kept it down – an era in which the UK played no small role, both in the Opium Wars and in holding Hong Kong as a colonial possession. That means that if the UK tries to really fight for Hong Kong, it will be attacked for acting like a meddling colonial power again. The UK is just too sensitive to the propaganda campaign that China could throw at it.
I agree. When I say through the UK, I mean through the UK’s standing in international law. That gives Hong Kong the ability to petition various bodies and sue in certain courts. It also gives legitimacy to e.g. the U.S. taking it on as a cause.
TL; DR There are ways for Hong Kong to make an overt treaty violation costly to Beijing. Unless Beijing is concerned about an imminent threat to its legitimacy and power, it’s unlikely to find those costs worth incurring.
When I sign contracts with a company, I negotiate against the imaginary dick who replaces the gentleman I know. Agreements outlast their signers. Politics can change.
The closer the 2047 deadline gets the tighter the control will become.