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Comment by polote | Hacker News Reader

But could also be the thing that will make the market crash nobody knows

The S&P 500 by itself is valued at almost $24T (https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_market_cap).

A couple large companies going public and raising several billion dollars will not make the market crash. All of them listing at once is a symptom of where we are in the economic cycle, and where these companies are in their individual growth curves.

I can see that happening.

Loss making unicorns go public -> investor pressure builds to reach profitability -> none of them can deliver on promises in the short term -> public does not want to own these stocks anymore -> causes a frantic selling spree -> market crashes.

Why would the market crash, and not just these few bad comapanies? What's systemic about the overhyped IRC clone or just another taxi service getting their fair value judged by public markets, that would cause a market crash?

I doubt there will be a global stock market crash but a there can definitely be a burst of the second dot com bubble. It would be enough for one of the overvalued companies to go bankrupt to take them all down, e.g. Tesla (they certainly have liquidity problems).

The portfolio effect:

A lot of funds pile into the techs. They lose money. Their customers pull their money. They have to sell not just the techs, but the rest of their portfolios too.

Maybe it finally pushes the student loan crisis over the edge when an influx of unemployed tech workers are added to the tens of thousands defaulting on their loans?

Outside of silicon valley there's an extraordinary amount of unfilled tech positions. If they are unemployed it's likely their own fault.

> If they are unemployed it's likely their own fault.

Well hold on, I was just idly speculating, but I don't like this kind of thinking. There's a hundred and one reasons people can't leave a city, or the obstacle to leaving is too great.

Off the top of my head, not wanting to uproot kids into a new school system, partner's job, disability that makes it extraordinarily difficult to move (away from whatever ADA stuff you've got set up at your apartment and commute flow you've got set up), need to stay near sick family, need to stay regional to a very specific doctor or healthcare facility, and that's just needs. A strong desire to stay in a local area due to history or just preference should be valid as well.

I see this reasoning used to attack non-tech workers all the time and it bothers me.

Well, Zoom is already profitable and Slack could easily go profitable.

But yes, the tale is different for AirBnB, Lyft, and Uber.

Airbnb is profitable. It has been since second half of 2016. Or at least close enough to profitable depending on the metrics you want to account for.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/airbnb-made-its-first-prof...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-15/airbnb-sa...

Ah thanks! I always did get the impression it was a more viable business than Lyft or Uber, but wasn't aware it was becoming profitable.

Haha yep. Cheers!

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